Do you remember the dramatic loosing of Financial conditions at the end of 2023?
The lagged effect of this massive loosening is now hitting and is supporting the US economy (and this NOT doing The Fed's job...). Indeed, US economic surprises keep surprising on the upside. The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2024 is 4.2 percent (!!!) on February 1, up from 3.0 percent on January 26
One reason the Fed is a bit nervous and signalling and end to their hiking cycle?
Real Fed Funds rates are the highest in over 20 years... Source: Markets & Mayhem, BofA
While the US economy remains very resilient, many consumers continue to struggle and need to find ways to keep their purchasing power
Pay rent or parents
The performance differential between Nasdaq 100 (Tech) and Russell 2000 (us small-caps) is extreme.
Yet the earnings gap between Mega Cap Tech Stocks and Small Caps has widened to all an all-time high. Source: Barchart
$TSLA is the only Magnificent 7 Stock to be in the red over the last 12 months.
Not only that, Tesla is getting absolutely trounced by the rest of the group. Should we rename this group the Magnificent 6 going forward? Source: barchart
From Facebook to Meta...
Swith the benefit of insight the renaming wasn't that bad after all... More seriously, it seems that the shift from metaverse to ai and the focus on shareholder value have been working very well. What a turnaround by Zuck... By the way, he will receive a $175 million quarterly dividend, on track for making $700 million annually in dividend... Is Mark Zuckerberg the mist underrated tech CEO. Source chart: Mac10
Adaptability is an underrated skill.
Source: The Investing for Beginners Podcast
In just 15 trading days, the new Bitcoin ETFs have made the commodities ETF leaderboard.
$IBIT at #7, $FBTC at #9, $ARKB and $BITB at #23 & #24 How long before $IBIT overtakes $SLV and the 2 top gold ETFs $IAU and $GLD ? Source: HODL15Capital
