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What kills bull markets
Nice visual by @safalniveshak thru Brian Feroldi
Dividend stocks have been horrendous in 2023
The 100 highest yielding stocks in the S&P had an average total return of -7.94% through last Friday compared to an average gain of 8.94% for the 100 (exactly) stocks in the index that pay no dividend. Source: Bespoke
Looks like it will be one of the most crowded trades to come
61% of Fund Managers from BofA Fund Manager survey expect lower bond yields, most on record, despite 2nd highest ever saying fiscal policy is too stimulative. Source: BofA, HolgerZ
US CPI has moved down from a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.2% today
What's driving that decline? Lower rates of inflation in Fuel Oil, Gas Utilities, Used Cars, Gasoline, Medical Care, New Cars, Food at Home, Electricity, Apparel, and Food away from Home. Shelter and Transportation are the only major components that have a higher inflation rate today than June 2022. Source: Charlie Bilello
US inflation data for Oct undershoot consensus
Headline dropped to +3.2% from 3.7% in Sep vs 3.3% expected, Core CPI dropped to 4.0% from 4.1% vs 4.1% expected. Dollar and Yields plunge. - Following two months of higher than expected US CPI numbers (mainly driven by higher energy prices and healthcare costs), the October CPI print was expected slow materially (from 3.7% to 3.3% yoy on headline CPI) while the core was expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%. But today’s CPI print is a miss across the board with both headline and core numbers coming in below expectations on both a sequential and annual basis. - Headline CPI came in at 3.2%, below the 3.3% expected, while MoM CPI also missed expectations, being vs. consensus at +0.1% and sharply below last month's 0.4%. Source: Bloomberg, HolgeZ, www.zerohedge.com
Has there been a better pairs trade than long US, short world... ever?
This relationship has generated steady alpha for a decade and a half now. Growth over value and large over small have also been excellent long / short pairs. Source: Steven Strazza
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