Oil’s wildest day ever?
xcluding the period when the world was in lockdown while Corona, yesterday marked the largest intraday trading range in history for front-month crude WTI. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Some thoughts on yesterday's evening White House Alert
Despite promises of escalation “20× harder,” the military campaign against Iran has already been intense, with 3,000 targets struck, most air defenses degraded, and dozens of warships sunk. Further escalation would likely target civilian infrastructure. However, this would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure stems from insurance withdrawals under Solvency II. Shipping remains constrained until insurers’ risk models normalize, regardless of military outcomes. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera on X
Everyone is talking about the war.
The main risk to global oil markets is now insurance, not just conflict. On 5 March, seven London P&I clubs suspended war-risk coverage for ships in the Strait of Hormuz due to rising capital requirements under Solvency II. Even if fighting stops, insurers need 12–24 months of stable data before restoring coverage, leaving about 20% of global seaborne crude trade constrained and keeping oil prices elevated. Source: Shanaka Anslem Perera (@shanaka86) on X
The Strait of Hormuz just shut down.
The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s most critical energy passage. Daily, about 100 cargo vessels transit the strait, carrying around 20% of global oil consumption, 27% of seaborne oil trade, and 20% of global LNG. Asia is the most exposed, receiving 89% of crude and 83% of LNG shipments, while the U.S. imports only about 7% via the strait. Any closure could trigger a major global energy disruption. Source: Visual Capitalist, Global Markets Investor
Goldman Sachs: some oil is moving through the Strait of Hormuz
Source: Brian Sozzi @BrianSozzi Goldman Sachs
The Anatomy of a Claude prompt
Alif Hossain @alifcoder
The Strait of Hormuz disruption goes far beyond oil:
Excluding energy, Bahrain faces ~62% of its total trade disrupted. The UAE is exposed at ~58%, and Qatar at ~46%. Gulf ports have become military targets, with the Strait effectively shut, sending shipping rates soaring and halting air cargo for a week. Source: Global Markets Investor @GlobalMktObserv
Oil Just Did the Unthinkable.
It didn’t just beat a crisis. It beat every crisis. Last week, WTI oil moved more violently than: • The Saudi price war of 1986 • The Gaza crisis of 2009 • Even the Covid demand collapse of 2020 In one week, oil experienced its biggest move in 40 years of recorded history. Source: Katusa Research @KatusaResearch
