The us 10-year note yield rises to 4.73%, its highest level since November 1st, 2023.
This puts the 10-year note yield ~100 basis points above its December 2024 low. With just 1 interest rate cut now expected in 2024, discussions of more HIKES are back. If todays' PCE inflation data confirms that hashtag#inflation is back on the rise, we could see futures price out the last cut. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Microsoft shares rose as much as 5% in extended trading on Thursday after the software maker issued fiscal third-quarter results that outdid Wall Street’s expectations.
Here’s how the company did in comparison with the consensus from LSEG: Earnings per share: $2.94 vs. $2.82 expected Revenue: $61.86 vs. $60.80 billion expected Microsoft’s total revenue grew 17% year over year in the quarter, which ended on March 31, according to a statement. Net income, at $21.94 billion, or $2.94 per share, was up from $18.30 billion, or $2.45 per share in the year-ago quarter. The company’s Intelligent Cloud segment, including the Azure public cloud, Windows Server, Nuance and GitHub, produced $26.71 billion in revenue. That’s up about 21% and more than the $26.26 billion consensus among analysts surveyed by StreetAccount. Revenue from Azure and other cloud services grew 31%, compared with 30% in the previous quarter. Analysts polled by CNBC had expected 28.8%, while the StreetAccount consensus was 28.6%. In a nutshell: $MSFT Microsoft Q3 FY24 (ending in March): • Revenue +17% Y/Y to $61.9B ($1.0B beat). • Gross margin 70% (+0pp Y/Y) • Operating margin 44% (+2pp Y/Y). • EPS $2.94 ($0.11 beat). Azure +31% fx neutral. Source: Barchart, CNBC
BREAKING: Google parent company Alphabet GOOGL soars over 12% in extended trading
after the company reported results that topped analysts’ estimates, showed soaring profits in its cloud division and announced its first dividend. The company reported revenue of $93.5 billion and EPS of $$1.89. Google also declared a $0.20 dividend for the first time in history and issued a $70 billion stock buyback. In a nutshell: $GOOG Alphabet Q1 FY24: • Revenue +15% Y/Y to $80.5B ($1.8B beat). • Operating margin 32% (+7pp Y/Y). • EPS $1.89 ($0.38 beat). ☁️ Google Cloud: • Revenue +28% Y/Y to $9.6B. • Operating margin 9% (+7pp Y/Y). ▶️ YouTube ads +21% to $8.1B. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, App Economy Insights
"The solid sales growth in the first quarter reflects the loyalty of our clients worldwide"
- Axel Dumas, Executive Chairman of Hermès $RMS Q1 2024 revenue growth by business line: Source: Quartr
SNB’s Jordan Warns New Inflation Shocks Could Hit "At Any Time"
Speaking in Bern this morning, Jordan said: “We will therefore monitor the ongoing development of inflation closely and adjust our monetary policy again if necessary.” and also cautioned there’s “no guarantee” that the current favorable consumer-price outlook will hold.
Source: Bloomberg
The chart below shared by Yahoo Finance newsletters thru Ryan Detrick, CMT shows that big starts to an election year (like '24) tend to see chop and weakness into June.
https://lnkd.in/eANaDtsN
Prediction markets now show a 36% chance of ZERO interest rate cuts in 2024, according to Kalshi.
To put this in perspective, 4 months ago there was a ~3% chance of no rate cuts in 2024. The base case has gone from 6 rate cuts to 1 rate cut this year. There is just a 31% chance of 2 or more interest rate cuts this year. In other words, there is a higher chance of NO cuts than 2 OR MORE cuts. Could it be the fastest shift in Fed expectations of all time? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
OOPS... stagflationary numbers out of US !!!
Real GDP expanded at a 1.6% rate in Q1, trailing all forecasts. Main growth engine – personal spending – rose at a slower-than-forecast 2.5% pace. BUT a closely watched measure of underlying inflation advanced at a greater-than-expected 3.7% clip... While "soft" macro data in the first 3 months of the year were "goldilocks" for markets (Growth surprising on the upside + disinflation), the effective Q1 print does not look as rosy... Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
