Markets are rallying on the news that Trump said expects the U.S. military forces will leave Iran in “two or three weeks.”
Still, it is difficult to say if this is the start of the true TACO trade. Indeed, it looks more like a brutal short squeeze. Over the last 2 weeks positioning has flipped rapidly. What began as a measured de-risking has accelerated into a full systematic unwind, with flows, gamma, and liquidity all reinforcing each other in the same direction. When positioning resets this aggressively, it rarely resolves cleanly. The next move is often dictated more by market mechanics than by fundamentals. And this is what took place yesterday. CTAs have swung from heavily long to decisively short in a very short time. Goldman Sachs estimates roughly $184bn of global equities have been sold over the past month, pushing positioning to a net short of around $47bn—approaching levels last seen during peak “Liberation Day” stress. Their projections suggest that upside now represents the largest convexity risk. We’ve seen this pattern before: sharp CTA reversals tend to be followed by meaningful market rebounds. From a geopolitical, macro and fundamentals perspectives, there are still many unknows: 1/ if the US leaves the region in 2 weeks, who will tale care of the Strait of Hormuz ? 2/ What will be the impacts on GDP and inflation? 3/ Will companies come with weaker guidance during Q1 reporting season? Source: GS, TME
In considering Tuesday's rally, don't forget that the quarter-end pension rebalance was estimated by Goldman at $34bn, the 8th largest since 2000 and a top 10 buy imbalance in history.
$34bn to buy in equities ranks in the 94th percentile amongst all buy and sell estimates in absolute dollar value over the past three years and in the 96th percentile going back to Jan 2000. Source: Neil Sethi on X, Goldman Sachs
Silver printed a large hammer candle not long ago, marking a short-term flush. Since then, price has consolidated, and yesterday we saw the first “serious” upside candle in a while.
We’re now close to breaking above the downtrend line in place since the top, as well as the 100-day. Is silver about to turn sexy again? Source: TME
JP Morgan just published a countdown for when the last ships carrying il from the Middle East will reach each continent:
🇨🇳 Asia: April 1st (today) 🇪🇺 Europe: April 10th 🇺🇸 North America: April 15th 🇦🇺 Australia: April 20th Source: Rand Group @cryptorand JP Morgan
Since Exxon was kicked out of the Dow Jones "Industrial" Average and replaced by Salesforce in August 2020, Exxon is up 325%. Salesforce is down 32%
Source: zerohedge
Private Credit’s Hidden Software Risk
Top private credit funds Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, and Blue Owl understate software exposure, averaging 25% vs. 19% reported. Blackstone leads at 33%, Blue Owl nearly doubles its reported share. Rising AI fears make this sector a key driver of record fund withdrawals, highlighting larger-than-expected risks. Source: Will Schryver, The Wall Street Journal, Global Markets Investor
Strong earnings with multiple contraction. That’s 2026 in a nutshell.
Source: @mattcerminaro Daily Chartbook
Maybe not the TACO everyone was expecting
S&P 500 futures are rallying following a Wall Street Journal report that President Donald Trump had told aides he was willing to end military hostilities in the Middle East even if the Strait of Hormuz remained largely shut. The plan to reopen the strait would stretch the conflict far beyond his projected 4-6 week timeline so instead, he’s deferring to diplomacy or shifting the burden onto allies. The United States initiated a war that shut down a critical waterway responsible for 20% of global oil shipments—and is now preparing to exit without reopening it. Five weeks. More than 3,000 dead. $200 billion requested. Over 300 Americans wounded. Oil prices have surged past $100. The risk of a global recession is climbing. Asian countries are rationing fuel. Gulf allies are enduring nightly bombardments. And the strait that sparked the entire escalation remains under Iranian control...
