A broker for Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, attempted to make a big investment in major defence companies in the weeks leading up to the US-Israeli attack on Ira
According to three people familiar with the matter. Hegseth’s broker at Morgan Stanley contacted BlackRock in February about making a multimillion-dollar investment in the asset manager’s Defense Industrials Active ETF, the people said, shortly before the US launched military action against Tehran. The inquiry on behalf of the high-profile potential client was flagged internally at BlackRock, according to the people familiar with the matter. Note however that if this is true, he would still have lost some money (-12.7% as shown on the chart below). Source: FT, Bloomberg, RBC
Do NOT expect bond volatility (MOVE index) to go down as long as oil prices stay elevated...
Source: Bloomberg, RBC
With markets getting close to oversold, everyone's hedged and global CTAs massively net sellers, there is some dry powder if the TACO trade finally takes place
Source: Goldman Sachs, RBC
Could we see more pain?
Yes, on the surface, the S&P 500 looks nearly oversold, but underneath, the situation looks different with only 11% of SPX constituents being oversold. Source: TME, Bloomberg, GS
The sp500 technical picture remains pretty much the same: not pretty
We’re now well below the 200-day, with the 21-day crossing below it, a “light” death cross. RSI is at its most oversold levels since the Liberation Day panic, so a bounce is possible. But beware of the "catching a falling knife" strategy - very often a risky one. Source: TME, LSEG Workspace
Trump just posted that France refused to let U.S. planes loaded with military supplies for Israel fly over French territory.
He said hashtag#France has been "VERY UNHELPFUL" with the Iran war. "The U.S.A. will REMEMBER!!!" NATO is having a moment... Source: Mario Nawfal Truth Social
Saudi oil export through Yanbu West Terminal are skyrocketing. The next target for Iran?
The Houthis’ involvement adds a second maritime pressure point in the Red Sea, with the ability to threaten Saudi Arabia’s Yanbu export hub and disrupt traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb. This puts ~5 mbd of Saudi bypass capacity at risk, potentially adding around $20/bbl to oil prices, writes JPM's Kaneva. Workarounds exist, but longer routes could extend Asia shipping times by up to 40 days and require 130+ additional tanker voyages. Source. JP Morgan, RBC, TME
European bond markets are having one of their worst months in a decade.
Italy's 10-yr yield hit 4.14% - highest since mid-2024. France's touched 3.9% - highest since 2009. Spain's at 3.7% - highest since 2023. The last time Eurozone borrowing costs moved this fast was in the 2022 energy crisis. The difference is that one cost €651 billion to contain. Source: FT, Nic @nicrypto
