Yesterday, ECB ups inflation outlook for 2025, 2026, cuts it for 2027
2025 Inflation forecast now 2.1% (from 2%), 2026 inflation forecast now 1.7%; (prior forecast 1.6%). ECB sees 2027 at 1.9% (prior estimates 2%). Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
UPDATE:
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets see a ~93% chance of one rate cut in September 2025 (to 4.00–4.25%) and a ~92% chance of two cuts by December (to 3.50–3.75%). Source: cointelegraph
The S&P 500 is now up +31% over the last 5 months, the most since the 2020 pandemic recovery
This marks the third-biggest 5-month gain over the last 20 years. This is only 1 percentage point behind the post-2008 Financial Crisis recovery of +32%. Since the April 8th low, the S&P 500 has added a MASSIVE +$16.6 trillion in value. That is more than the size of every individual stock market in the world, except the US. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
In case you missed it...
Silver hits highest closing price in 14 years. Source: Barchart
Is Larry Ellison the GOAT?
1) Owns 40% of $ORCL, 2) Hasn't sold any shares! 3) $ORCL bought back 50% of the shares outstanding, 4) Now worth $401B. He is 81 years old and could be on his Yacht in Monaco. Yet, he remains the CEO of the company he founded 48 years ago, and still answers questions on earnings calls! Still creating value for his shareholders. Unbelievable! Source: Ray Myers @TheRayMyers
Initial jobless claims spiked today, but ex Texas, they look normal for this time of year
Per the Texas Workforce Commission, filings for Disaster Unemployment Assistance related to the lethal floods in the Texas Hill Country earlier this summer were due by September 4... Source: Bespoke
The Economist cover page this week
Peak AI spending growth???
The Fed is in command
1. Stocks: all-time high, 2. Home Prices: all-time high, 3. Bitcoin: all-time high, 4. Gold: all-time high, 5. Money Supply: all-time high, 6. National Debt: all-time high, 7. CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target", 8. Fed: cutting interest rates next week. Source: Charlie Bilello
