Happy FOMC day.
Stocks: all-time high Home Prices: all-time high Gold: all-time high Money Supply: all-time high National Debt: all-time high CPI Inflation: 4% per year since Jan 2020, 2x the Fed's "target" Time for the Fed to cut rates. Let's get this party started. Source: Trend Spider
DAX Index nearing key support !
Since the July 10th highs, the DAX has pulled back more than 5%, while the S&P 500 gained around 5% over the same period. The index is now approaching a major support zone at 23,050–23,250. Watch closely in the coming days — price action around these levels could be decisive. Source: Bloomberg
Atlanta Fed is now projecting that Q3 GDP will be +3.4%… a massive expansion
The US economy is running HOT. But the fed is going to cut rates... Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Since a 25bps rate cut is fully priced in, the main focus for markets will be whether the median 2025 dot shows 50bp or 75bp of cuts
With little change in the macro forecasts - for now - Bank of America thinks the 2025 median will continue to show 50bp of cuts, even as the distribution of dots moves down. Alternatively, Goldman now expects 75bps of rate cuts this year and another 50 next year. Clearly, it's all a close call for now. The dot plot should then show one more 25bp cut in 2027, although with Powell on his way out in May 2026 all bets are off regarding the longer horizon. The longer-run median is likely to stay at 3.0%. With that in mind, here is what Bank of America thinks the names behind tomorrow's dots will look like. Of particular interest will be the Lisa Cook and Stephen Miran dots. Source: BofA
AI is eating the world
The 109 AI stocks in the Goldman Sachs TMT AI Basket are now worth $29.2tn, almost as much as the annual economic output of the US. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
BREAKING: Robinhood announces that they have filed with the SEC to launch Robinhood Ventures Fund I (RVI), a concentrated portfolio of innovative private companies leading their industries.
It looks like Robinhood is going to IPO a fund that allows retail to invest in the best private companies... “For decades, wealthy people and institutions have invested in private companies while retail investors have been unfairly locked out. With Robinhood Ventures, everyday people will be able to invest in opportunities once reserved for the elite,” said Robinhood Chairman and CEO Vlad Tenev. Source: amit @amitisinvesting
Is AI seriously overbought?
$AIQ is the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF. It is at the most overbought levels since July 2024...just before markets crashed. Source: TME, LSEG
Senate votes 48-47 to confirm Stephen Miran to Fed board
Source: Kevin Gordon @KevRGordon, Blomberg
