BREAKING‼️ Global banking giant Standard Chartered says $50-$100 BILLION could flow into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024
Source: Bitcoin Archive
Fed member Bostic just said that he sees just 2 interest rate cuts in 2024 for a total of 50 basis points
As highlighted by the Kobeissi Letter -> This ONE THIRD the amount of rate cuts that futures are currently pricing-in. Bostic also said that he is "not comfortable declaring victory" against inflation at this point. Meanwhile, markets see a base case of 150 basis points in rate cuts in 2024. There is even a ~24% chance of 175 basis points in rate cuts. The Fed to market disconnect is widening. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Why investors should embrace risk in one chart by Charlie Bilello:
Annualized Volatility since 1928... Stocks: 19.6% Bonds: 7.7% Cash: 3.0% Annualized Returns since 1928... Stocks: +9.8% Bonds: +4.6% Cash: +3.3%
Bank of America Corp. expects the Federal Reserve to announce plans to begin tapering the runoff of its Treasuries holdings in March, coinciding with its first 25 basis points interest-rate cut.
- The Reverse Repo ("RRP") is de facto QE-infinity $ printed during 2020-21 that was sitting dormant. It's now being used to buy up US Treasuries. Problem: it is declining at a very rapid pace and might be gone by the end of January 2024. - Something needs to be done to preserve QB / liquidity. - This is why the Fed is now thinking about slowing down the pace of QT. Over the week-end, Dallas Fed chief Logan said the Fed should slow Asset runoff as Reverse Repo dwindles - 2024 is an election year and we expect net liquidity to be supportive for the economy, bond markets and risk assets
BREAKING bitcoin spot ETF: the fee war has begun
Bitcoin ETF applicants are filing last-minute amendments to lower their fees 👀 BlackRock's lowered to 0.30% 👀 ARK lowered lowered to 0.25% 👀 Wall Street is competing to offer cheap access to $BTC... Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Bitcoin Magazine
US defense spending vs interest on Federal debt
Source: www.zerohedge.com
New Year, New Low!
After a shallow rally, Chinese hashtag#equities just made a new low. Down 15% from their peak in May last year, down 22% from their 2021 peak. Sources: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
Long positioning by CTAs is extreme and creates some downside risk for the market.
According to UBS: "ES1 (sp500 futures) is already 100% long with first meaningful sell triggers @ -4% to -6%. NQ1 (nasdaq) is 92% long with first meaningful sell triggers @ - 4% to 6%". Source: TME, UBS
