The new safety trade
-> An incredible $993 billion has gone into money market funds since the Fed started raising rates in March 2020. Inflows to money market funds are well ahead those seen in 2015, 2004, 1999 and 1994 rate hike cycles. Why take risk on your "safety" trade when you can make 5% risk-free? Source: The Kobeissi Letter
On a growth-adjusted basis, the mega caps trade at the largest discount to the median S&P 500 stock in over six years
Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
New home buyers in the US
Source: Michel A. Gayed
A death cross on the Euro-dollar
Watch out the key 1.05 support level. There is not safety net underneath Source: TME Activate to view larger image,
Asset class and style returns by JP Morgan
As bonds and stocks fell simultaneously, commodities were the notable outperformer in Q3, returning 4.7% and echoing the market dynamics of 2022. Source: JP Morgan
US 10y yields keep rising with most of the increase is due to the rise in real yields. US 10 year yields is now at 4.65%, 10 year real yields at 2.29%
Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
Japanese Yen falling to lowest levels against the U.S. Dollar since the BOJ intervened last year
150 level approaching fast 👀 Meanwhile, The Bank of Japan announced an extra bond-buying plan for this week as a global debt selloff forces policymakers into the market to curb sharp increases in yields. The BOJ will purchase extra amounts of 5-to-10-year debt on Wednesday as it strives to slow rising yields that are at the highest level in a decade. The benchmark 10-year maturity climbed to 0.775% Monday, a level last seen in 2013. Japan’s 20- and 30-year yields are at similar peaks while Treasury yields also keep moving higher. Japanese sovereign yields have risen as speculation grows the central bank will end its negative interest rate sooner rather than later, while the US Federal Reserve will also keep borrowing costs high. The BOJ has already conducted three unscheduled buying operations since late July to manage yields after adjusting policy to let them rise more. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg
Bloomberg on the status of US "excess pandemic savings."
Source: Bloomberg
