Will the "Trump trade" start top fade in December?
Goldman Sachs' trader John Flood highlighted the 2016 analogs: the 3 trades depicted below (Domestic vs. International sales, Cyclicals vs. Defensives, Small-caps vs. Large-caps) skyrocketed in November 2016 but ALL started to fade in December 2016, going nowhere in Q1 2017. Could we see something similar in December and Q1 2025 ? Source: www.zerohedge.com, Goldman Sachs
BofA (Woodward):
"the net supply of US equities has shrunk -$473bn. The steady growth of buybacks, a key source of demand, has overwhelmed sources of new supply such as share issuance, IPOs, and stock-based compensation." So basically we have: 1) US stocks: shrinking supply, (ever-) increasing demand 2) US Treasuries: rising supply, decreasing demand Source: Neil Sethi
The king reports earnings exactly ONE WEEK from today. $NVDA
Source: TrendSpider
$SPY The S&P 500 had its best-performing week of 2024. Here are the top-performing stocks from last week: 👇🏻
Source: The Future Investors @ftr_investors
FLOWMAGEDDON: A Trump-inspired gusher of cash is flowing into risk-on ETFs, +$22b in one day is absurd, that is normally a good WEEK.
YTD net flows now +$856b, (55b away from annual record) and the rolling 1-year has passed $1T Source: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
Following the election, the SP500 typically rallies through inauguration day before moderating.
Source: Bloomberg, Macrobond, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA, The Daily Shot
BlackRock had its LARGEST inflow in history with 14,588
Only 450 $BTC were mined...
Another day, another record: The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 now account for a record 37% of the index.
This percentage officially exceeds peak levels seen during the 2000 Dot-Com bubble by 10 percentage points. Over the last decade, the market concentration has more than DOUBLED. Furthermore, the top 10 stocks alone now have a market cap of ~$18.7 TRILLION. This means that the top 10 stocks in the US now have a combined market cap that is $1 trillion higher than the entire European stock market. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
