BREAKING: TANGIBLE SIGN OF US CONSUMER WEAKNESS?
Target stock, $TGT, falls 8% after reporting weaker than expected earnings with a 3% revenue decline due to consumer weakness. Target's CEO said the decline reflects “continued soft trends in discretionary categories.” The company's store traffic fell by 1.9% less quarter and the average amount spent by customer also fell 1.9%. Consumers bought fewer everyday items like groceries along with fewer discretionary goods. Another sign that consumers are struggling. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
A POSITIVE contrarian signal >>>
EQUITY mutual funds are working on their 82nd straight month of OUTFLOWS. Source: Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas
Bears of Wall Street
Source: Bloomberg
Are large cap stocks losing popularity?
The number of large-cap US long-only funds has decreased by ~40% in 10 years, to its lowest level in decades. Since 2013, the number of large cap funds has declined from ~570 to ~340, according to Bank of America. In addition, active mutual funds have been consistently underperforming the market. More than 90% of actively-managed equity funds underperformed their benchmark in over the last 20 years. In 2023 alone, 60% of all active large-cap US equity funds underperformed the S&P 500. Source: Bank of America, The Kobeissi Letter
Not all new highs are the same.
Awesome chart from @sonusvarghese thru Ryan Detrick here. End of March, SPX up 10.2% YTD. Only 3.1% from EPS growth and the rest (7.1%) was from multiple expansion. On 5/15, SPX up 11.1% YTD. Now 5.3% from EPS growth and 6.0% from multiple expansion.
Bears are capitulating...
Mike Wilson chief equity strategist of Morgan Stanley has revised his price target of the S&P 500 from 4,500 to 5,400 Notoriously a market bear, he had previously predicted a 15% drop by December for the index. Source: Radar, The Macro Guy, Bloomberg
BREAKING: The S&P 500 has just hit its 23rd all time high this year and is now up 29% since October 2023
This means that the S&P 500 has officially added $10 TRILLION in market cap since its October 2023 low. The index is now up 11.5% in 2024 even as a total of four interest rate cuts have been priced-out since January. We are on track to see the most all time highs in a year since 2021. Over the last 12 years, the S&P 500 has hit 370 all-time highs, which is more than any 12-year period in history. $SPX Source: Charlie Bilello, The Kobeissi Letter
S&P 500 $SPX hits all-time high
Source: Barchart
