ENERGY STOCKS SINCE 1926 (relative to S&P)
Source: BofA, The Daily Shot
Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises
Source: Bloomberg
BofA Harnett: "...new 'BRICS 10’= 51% of global CO2 emissions, 46% of population, 45% of energy consumption, 45% of oil production, 37% of GDP (at purchasing power parity)…
yet <25% of global market cap, and EM equities also at 52-year low vs. US" Source: BofA, TME
This year is just the fifth time that the S&P 500 has started the year with back-to-back declines of 0.5% or more
Source: Bespoke
One of the major risk for equity markets in the short-run is Euphoria that prevailed at the start of the year. In other words, positioning is uber-bullish and can only go down from here
As Goldman trader Cullen Morgan writes, after 9 consecutive weeks higher in the S&P (quite a rarity), sentiment and positioning in US equities is very stretched. On the positioning front, US futures length (see chart below) now stands near record highs. In past instances when non-dealer positioning has been greater than $130bn, near term returns have been strong, while returns further out (3-months to 1-year) tend to skew more negative… With the latest data at +$158bn, Goldman traders are very wary of this now being a larger headwind. Similarly, CTA positioning in US Equities is approaching 2023 highs. Bottom-line: any geopolitical or macro news (e.g too hot US jobs print) might lead to higher bond yields might might put some downside pressure on equity markets.
Correlation between Equity and Bond returns
Source: BlackRock, Ayesha Tariq, CFA
Chinese stocks are trading near all-time lows relative to GDP, while US stocks are trading near all-time highs relative to GDP
Perhaps for good reason... but that's a massive spread. Source: Swordfishvegetable
Mark Zuckerberg sold nearly half a billion dollars of Meta shares in the final two months of 2023 after a 2y hiatus in which the company’s stock price hit its lowest in seven years
The Meta CEO sold shares on every trading day between Nov. 1 and the end of the year, unloading nearly 1.28mln shares for ~$428mln. On average, each sale took in $10.4mln. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
