The SP500 has now lost $3.5 trillion in value since the Fed removed a recession from their forecast
The Fed marked the exact high in July 2023 with their "no recession" call. Since then, the S&P 500 is down 9% and just hit its lowest level since May 31st. We are also 1% away from entering correction territory just as earnings season begins. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
China’s Nasdaq-Style Index falls to record low:
Star 50 index, which tracks manufacturers, chipmakers & biggest comps on Star Board, falls to lowest since its inception >3yrs ago as investors’ confidence wanes. Set for 6 straight mths of decline. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
MARKET BREADTH NEGATIVE ALERT >>>
SP500 Market Breadth drops to lowest level of the year as only 35.38% of Index Stocks are trading above their 200 Day Moving Averages Source: Barchart
As stocks tumbled, the VIX soared
And after 105 consecutive days of closing below 20, the longest streak since 2019, the VIX index finally closed above 20 - in fact above 21 - breaking the streak on day 106. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
This is the first time since 2000 that Treasury Bills are yielding higher than the S&P 500 earnings yield
Even during the 2008 Financial Crisis, cash never yielded higher than S&P 500 earnings. And the gap between the SP500 earnings yield and cash is widening. Competition from cash and bond yields versus stocks keeps rising. For a USD-reference account investor, here's the median Return by Asset Class: 1. High Yield Savings Accounts: 5.5% 2. 6-Month Treasury Bill Yield: 5.0% 3. Investment Property Cap Rate: 4.5% 4. S&P 500 Earnings Yield: 4.2% Bottomm-line: Cash and Treasury Bills are now paying a HIGHER yield than real estate and the S&P 500. In other words, risky assets are paying less than risk-free assets, i.e taking a risk is compensated LESS than just holding cash. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Below a chart of stocks $SPY (S&P 500) vs. bonds $TLT (iShares 20y+ US Treasuries), just as a reminder of the persistence and longevity of this relative trend
Source: David Keller
Through FY24 to FY27, Nvidia $NVDA is projected to generate a total of $342B in revenue
That forecasted total is more than double Nvidia’s lifetime revenues of $160.3B through the end of FY23. Source: Beth Kindig
The relative Nasdaq 100 bull does not care about no rates moving higher...
Source: TME, Goldman Sachs
