Speculators have built the largest nasdaq long position in history according to CFTC data
Positioning remains a short-term issue for equity markets. Source: Barchart
BREAKING: Japan's Nikkei 225 stock index rises above 34,000 for the first time since March 1990. Breakout from a 30-year base!
- Breakout + test from 30-year base (blue circle) - Successful test of 2nd base (purple circle) - $NIKKEI now trading at 34-year high - Still below ATH recorded in 1989 - Yen is undervalued by ~40% on PPP-basis (source: ) Along with hitting a fresh 33-year high, Japan's stock market is now up 120% from its low in 2020. Both technology and health care stocks have been the main drivers. Recently, Warren Buffett began betting on a recovery of Japan's economy. Japan is back in a bull market.
P/E MSCI World IT vs MSCI World
Tech stocks have unusually large P/E premium Source: Macrobond, TME
New Year, New Low!
After a shallow rally, Chinese hashtag#equities just made a new low. Down 15% from their peak in May last year, down 22% from their 2021 peak. Sources: Jeroen Blokland, Bloomberg
Long positioning by CTAs is extreme and creates some downside risk for the market.
According to UBS: "ES1 (sp500 futures) is already 100% long with first meaningful sell triggers @ -4% to -6%. NQ1 (nasdaq) is 92% long with first meaningful sell triggers @ - 4% to 6%". Source: TME, UBS
ENERGY STOCKS SINCE 1926 (relative to S&P)
Source: BofA, The Daily Shot
Goldman believes that the 5% EPS forecast for sp500 is too low as a strong economy and falling interest rates should lead to positive surprises
Source: Bloomberg
BofA Harnett: "...new 'BRICS 10’= 51% of global CO2 emissions, 46% of population, 45% of energy consumption, 45% of oil production, 37% of GDP (at purchasing power parity)…
yet <25% of global market cap, and EM equities also at 52-year low vs. US" Source: BofA, TME
