The sp500 has been anticipating the improvement in earnings (ex-Energy) expectations so far. Can these expectations be met?
Source: Bloomberg (Gina Martin Adams for the #chart)
The sp500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The Fed first hiked #rates in March 2022...
The #sp500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The #Fed first hiked #rates in March 2022...
The S&P 500 is now 3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears"
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears". As highlighted by Goldman, there is a $5 Trillion “wedge” between Money Market Funds and bonds vs. equities... As investors realize that the much feared recession is not happening, they might be willing to move from the sidelines back into risk assets. Goldman's Rubner calls it a "R.I.N.O market" (Recession In Name Only).
80% of stocks in the SP500 are now above their 50-DMAs
80% of stocks in the SP500 are now above their 50-DMAs. Looking at this breadth reading across sectors, it's cyclicals surging and defensives lagging behind. Source: bespoke
Market Behaving Like Past Decade's Pattern Has Been Broken
Going back to 1950, this is currently the 9th longest stretch without the S&P 500 making a new all-time high. Source: Willie Delwiche
SP500 top 10 weights - market cap vs. earnings contribution
Source: J.P.Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Concentration Now Tops the Tech Bubble
The return spread between the seven largest S&P500 stocks compared to the rest of the index is now higher than when the Dot Com Bubble Burst. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg