US equity markets have decoupled from the global liquidity proxy for the first time in over a decade.
Is the market pricing in a massive global re-liquification of asset markets? Source: Bloomberg
The Nations SkewDex, which is a proxy of long put demand, reached the lowest level since data are recorded.
The Nations SkewDex compares the cost of out-of-the-money SPY put options to the cost of precisely at-the-money SPY options. Source: Bloomberg, C.Barraud
Despite weak US retail sales, yesterday was another strong session for us stocks after Microsoft $MSFT announced new pricing for its AI offerings...
For context, $MSFT and $NVDA have added $175BN market cap today, more than the mkt cap of 462 S&P companies, and more than the value of Nike, Wells Fargo, Walt Disney, Morgan Stanley, Intel, etc This ai related news drove value back near its record lows relative to growth... Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Nice look at just how powerful the "Super 7" stocks have been to $SPY and $QQQ, contributing to 75% of their YTD gains.
This has sparked a torrent of flows into equal-weighted SPX ETF $RSP, which has blown away all other smart-beta #ETFs in flows this summer w/ +$6b, Sourc: Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg via JSeyff
The Nasdaq-100's rebalancing in one chart from Goldman
On July 24, the weight of the largest 7 stocks in the index will be reduced from 56% to 44%. Apple and Microsoft will remain the largest constituents but their index weights will be reduced to 12% and 10%, respectively. Alphabet, Amazon and Nvidia come next. Broadcom’s index weight will increase the most (by 60 basis points to 3%). It is estimated that roughly $260 billion in mutual funds and ETFs AUM are benchmarked to the Nasdaq 100 $NDX while hedge funds have an estimated $20 billion of net short exposure. Source: David Kostin thru Oktay Kavrak, CFA
The S&P 500 is up 17.5% year-to-date. In the last 20 years only 2019 had a better start. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
Speculation is Back
Source: Bloomberg
The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings
The S&P 500's 25% gain since last year's low has been driven by valuation expansion rather than rising earnings. There is hope that earnings will start recovering in Q3 and through 2024. Source: Edward Jones
