The NASDAQ (in yellow) has been massively decoupling from the FED balance sheet (in purple)
Source: The Market Ear, Refinitiv
S&P 500 peak in January 2022 vs. peaks in October 2007 and March 2000...
Source: Charlie Bilello
Nasdaq vs Yield Curve
Source: AmplifyME/ Anthony Cheung
The sp500 has been anticipating the improvement in earnings (ex-Energy) expectations so far. Can these expectations be met?
Source: Bloomberg (Gina Martin Adams for the #chart)
The sp500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The Fed first hiked #rates in March 2022...
The #sp500 is now 3% above the level it was at when The #Fed first hiked #rates in March 2022...
The S&P 500 is now 3% higher than where it was when the Fed started hiking rates in March 2022. $SPX
Source: Charlie Bilello
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears"
Is this the biggest risk for the equity "bears". As highlighted by Goldman, there is a $5 Trillion “wedge” between Money Market Funds and bonds vs. equities... As investors realize that the much feared recession is not happening, they might be willing to move from the sidelines back into risk assets. Goldman's Rubner calls it a "R.I.N.O market" (Recession In Name Only).
80% of stocks in the SP500 are now above their 50-DMAs
80% of stocks in the SP500 are now above their 50-DMAs. Looking at this breadth reading across sectors, it's cyclicals surging and defensives lagging behind. Source: bespoke
