Is stocks leadership vs. commodities starting to roll over?
Source: J-C Parets
Given the expensive level of stocks valuations (especially tech), there is little room left for bad news
Valuation ratios are bad timing tools but help assessing the downside potential. Source: Charlie Bilello
CTAs are long net $58BN in US equities, just shy of the upper-end of the 5-year range
Could they trigger an acceleration of the equity sell-off if the S&P 500 breaks some key support level? Here are the key levels to watch according to GS: Short-term threshold = 4440 (-1.6%) Medium-term threshold (the most important one) = 4257 (-5.6%) Long-term threshold = 4240 (-6.1%) Source: Goldman
Bonds and equities re-correlate...The recent acceleration in yields appears to have had an effect on long-duration risk-assets...
Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Amazon reported second-quarter earnings on Thursday that sailed past analysts’ estimates and issued guidance that points to accelerating revenue growth
The stock rose more than 10% in extended trading. AMZN Amazon Q2 FY23: • Revenue +11% Y/Y to $134.3B ($3B beat). • Operating margin 6% (+3pp Y/Y). • FCF $7.9B TTM. • EPS $0.65. AWS: • Revenue +12% Y/Y to $22.1B. • Operating margin 24% (-4pp Y/Y). Q3 FY23 Guidance: • Revenue ~$140B ($2B beat). Source: App Economy Insights, CNBC
Robinhood now makes much more collecting interest on client cash than from its core business.
This is $234 million that RH's customers should be collecting but they are currently handling to the Trading App. Source: www.zerohedge.com, Robinhood
Do US cyclical equities look vulnerable given the extent of growth optimism currently priced in vs. the weakness of ISM manufacturing?
Source chart: Goldman
Treasuries haven’t been this ineffective as a stock hedge since the 1990s. The one-month correlation between the two assets is now at its highest reading since 1996
Source: Lisa Abramowicz, Bloomberg
