😨 Weak breadth: a Hindenburg Omen was triggered yesterday 🚨
The past 30 times this happened, $SPX fell 83% of the time 2 months later ➡️ What is a Hindenburg Omen ??? The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis signal that’s often cited as a warning of a potential stock market crash or major correction. It’s named (dramatically) after the Hindenburg airship disaster, implying that markets might be headed for a similar fiery fate when the signal appears. Here’s what it actually means 👇 ⚙️ The Mechanics The Hindenburg Omen triggers when a specific combination of conditions occur on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE): 1. A large number of stocks hit new 52-week highs and a large number hit new 52-week lows — on the same day. 2. The number of new highs and new lows both represent more than 2.2% of all issues traded. 3. The NYSE composite index is above its level from 50 trading days ago (i.e., the market is still in an uptrend). 4. Market breadth (the McClellan Oscillator) is negative. 💡 What It Signals - This combo suggests internal conflict in the market — investors are both euphoric (driving some stocks to new highs) and fearful (dumping others to new lows). - That kind of divergence often happens before major turning points — when optimism and fear coexist uneasily. ⚠️ The Catch - It’s not a guaranteed crash predictor. - Historically, it’s produced lots of false alarms, but most major market crashes (like 2008) were preceded by one. So, think of it as a “storm warning” — not a crash forecast. When it flashes, investors tend to watch liquidity, breadth, and credit spreads much more closely. Source: Subu Trade: h/t @McClellanOsc
I would prefer to see better participation on the upside for the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ to extend its bull market.
Things have been improving lately but the negative divergence between price action and market breadth (% of Nasdaq 100 stocks above their 50-day MA) is not the best set-up. We remain long Tech though. Source: Trend Spider
S&P Global Ratings has issued a credit rating to Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the first time for any Bitcoin treasury company 👀
Source: Bitcoin Magazine
69% of S&P 500 index members that have reported their Q3 numbers so far have beat sales expectations,
It is the highest beat ratio in 4 years Source: Bloomberg
Not yet halfway through this earnings season.
But guide cuts are looking pretty good thus far. Let see if this number improves or worsens this week as 25% of S&P 500 market cap reports earnings Source: RBC, GS
The S&P500 valuation is higher than historical average for a reason.
Net income margins are in a secular uptrend. "People throw that word around far too easily; a bubble is a relatively rare event, and not something that occurs annually. We see bubbles only once every few decades." https://buff.ly/hPw3gQj by @Ritholtz
🔥 From “Has-Been” to “Too Important to Fail” 🔥
Intel’s comeback story isn’t just about chips — it’s about industrial strategy. As The Wall Street Journal noted today, “Investors seem to be betting that Intel is too important to fail.” 💡 The U.S. government’s deep involvement — driven by national security priorities — has transformed Intel’s trajectory: 🏛️ Direct support through policy and funding 🤝 Indirect momentum as partners and investors rush back in 💰 New contracts, new capital, and renewed confidence This is what modern industrial policy looks like — when national interest and private innovation align. Intel isn’t just rebuilding a company… it’s reshaping an ecosystem. Source: Mo El Erian, WSJ, Factset
The "K-shaped" economy in one chart...
The top 10% of American households own 87% of all stocks, nearly 85% of all private businesses and 44% of Real Estate Another way of looking at this: The bottom 90% increasingly don’t matter in official economic data Source: Amy Nixon @texasrunnerDFW
