--- title: Syz The Moment | equities (94) description: equities | Syz The Moment (94) --- [![Syz Private banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/Logo.png?width=140&name=Logo.png "Syz Private banking")](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Thinking** out loud [Subscribe](https://25733253.hs-sites-eu1.com/newsletter-signup?hsLang=en) [![Contact Us](https://hubspot-no-cache-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/default/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2.png)](https://hubspot-cta-redirect-eu1-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/cta/redirect/25733253/3d762f49-4e71-4f99-97b1-bf6781ef3da2) - [OUR SERVICES](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [ABOUT SYZ](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [CAREERS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [PRESS](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Blog Homepage](https://blog.syzgroup.com) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Fixed Income Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [Equity Weekly](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [CONTACT](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [ENGLISH](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [FRANร‡AIS](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) - [Slow Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thought) - [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus) - [Asset allocations Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/market-outlook) - [Swiss Perspectives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/swiss-perspectives) - [Fast Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought) - [Flash](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/flash) - [Weekly Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-fixed-income) - [The week in seven charts](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/the-week-in-seven-charts) - [Global markets outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thought/tag/weekly-equities) - [Syz the moment](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [Crypto corner](https://blog.syzgroup.com/crypto-corner) - [Syz AI Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-ai-insights) - [Our Services](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/private-banking) - [About Syz](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/about/welcome-to-syz) - [Careers](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/careers) - [Press](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/news) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [English](https://www.syzgroup.com/) - [Franรงais](https://www.syzgroup.com/fr) ## **Sign-up** for our newsletter This website uses cookies to enhance user navigation and to collect statistical data. You can change your settings below to refuse the use of cookies. For more information, please refer to the [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices). Mandatory cookies Functional cookies Statistics & marketing I confirm I am not a US citizen residing in the US I confirm I am not accessing this site from the US I confirm that I am not a resident of Canada (except for Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia or Alberta). Agree and confirm ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the futureโ€ฆ ### Restricted access We are sorry that for legal reasons we are not able to help US citizens or Canadian residents other than in Ontario, Quebec, or Alberta. Best wishes for the futureโ€ฆ You chose the following profile. If you made a mistake, please change here USA Country Switzerland Canada: Other than Ontario, Quebec, Alberta Canada: Ontario, Quebec or Alberta USA Other country Language Language English French German Italian I confirm Legal information This marketing document has been issued by Bank Syz Ltd. It is not intended for distribution to, publication, provision or use by individuals or legal entities that are citizens of or reside in a state, country or jurisdiction in which applicable laws and regulations prohibit its distribution, publication, provision or use. It is not directed to any person or entity to whom it would be illegal to send such marketing material. This document is intended for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer, solicitation or recommendation for the subscription, purchase, sale or safekeeping of any security or financial instrument or for the engagement in any other transaction, as the provision of any investment advice or service, or as a contractual document. Nothing in this document constitutes an investment, legal, tax or accounting advice or a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate for an investor's particular and individual circumstances, nor does it constitute a personalized investment advice for any investor. This document reflects the information, opinions and comments of Bank Syz Ltd. as of the date of its publication, which are subject to change without notice. The opinions and comments of the authors in this document reflect their current views and may not coincide with those of other Syz Group entities or third parties, which may have reached different conclusions. The market valuations, terms and calculations contained herein are estimates only. The information provided comes from sources deemed reliable, but Bank Syz Ltd. does not guarantee its completeness, accuracy, reliability and actuality. Past performance gives no indication of nor guarantees current or future results. Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 9 Dec 2025 - - - #### U.S. Equity Risk Premium is now negative ๐Ÿšจ On a risk-adjusted basis, stocks offer zero return for investors ๐Ÿ‘€ Source: Bloomberg, Barchart [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![U.S. Equity Risk Premium is now negative ๐Ÿšจ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-Dec-09-2025-04-13-52-8237-PM.jpg) ![U.S. Equity Risk Premium is now negative ๐Ÿšจ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-Dec-09-2025-04-13-52-8237-PM.jpg) 9 Dec 2025 - - - #### Great chart from Ryan Detrick thru Eugene Ng on X The top 10 stocks account for ~39% of the US stock market. But many more countries are far higher, China ~49%, Australia 62%, Taiwan 76%, and even Singapore is ~88%. [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Great chart from Ryan Detrick thru Eugene Ng on X](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Dec-09-2025-04-04-36-1905-PM.jpg) ![Great chart from Ryan Detrick thru Eugene Ng on X](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Dec-09-2025-04-04-36-1905-PM.jpg) 8 Dec 2025 - - - #### Will Santa be coming to town this year? ๐ŸŽ… The last five trading days of the year plus the first two trading days of the new year are known as the "Santa Claus rally". Since 1980, there have been positive returns 73% of the time, with average S&P 500 upside of 1.1%. Source: Edward Jones thru Markets & Mayhem [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Will Santa be coming to town this year? ๐ŸŽ…](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Dec-08-2025-01-53-21-7260-PM.jpg) ![Will Santa be coming to town this year? ๐ŸŽ…](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/8-Dec-08-2025-01-53-21-7260-PM.jpg) 5 Dec 2025 - - - #### ๐Ÿ›‘ WAKE UP CALL: Could the AI Trade trigger a 15-20% S&P 500 correction? (Goldman Sachs Analysis) It's not about the current earningsโ€”it's about the Capex future. And if that future changes, the market is in for a shock. Goldman Sachs just dropped a massive warning. The Core Risk: AI Spending Reversal They say that our current S&P 500 valuation is priced for an incredible, long-term AI Capex boom (spending on AI infrastructure). What if that boom stalls? If AI capex growth expectations revert to early 2023 levels, GS estimates the S&P 500 valuation multiple could see a 15-20% DOWNSIDE. That's a huge potential correction driven only by multiple compression. The Extreme Scenario (The Nightmare Fuel) -\> Imagine the Hyperscalers slamming the brakes on spending. ๐Ÿ”ด The expected Capex for 2026 is approximately $433 billion. A reversion to the 2022 Capex level of $158 billion would result in a massive reduction of $275 billionโ€”the "Lost Capex." ๐Ÿ”ดThis $275 billion shortfall represents a 30% reduction to the consensus estimate of $1 trillion in S&P 500 sales growth. Consequently, the expected S&P 500 revenue growth rate would drop sharply from the consensus of 6% to approximately 4%. โžก๏ธ Ultimately, this decrease in spending would pose a substantial downside risk to both the AI investment trade and the broader S&P 500 market. The Takeaway for investors: This isn't about today's P&L. It's about the market's perception of tomorrow's AI-driven growth. A dramatic cut in capex would signal the long-term AI earnings thesis is broken, leading to a much steeper decline in stock valuations than a simple revenue reduction would suggest. ๐Ÿ”‘ Don't miss this point: Near-term revenues might only drop modestly, but the hit to long-term earnings growth expectations will crush valuations. Source: Goldman Sachs, Neil Sethi @neilksethi [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) ![๐Ÿ›‘ WAKE UP CALL: Could the AI Trade trigger a 15-20% S&P 500 correction? (Goldman Sachs Analysis)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/12-Dec-05-2025-02-41-12-5319-PM.jpg) ![๐Ÿ›‘ WAKE UP CALL: Could the AI Trade trigger a 15-20% S&P 500 correction? (Goldman Sachs Analysis)](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/12-Dec-05-2025-02-41-12-5319-PM.jpg) 5 Dec 2025 - - - #### When you see this chart, do you really want to go short Tesla ? Source: J-C Parets, TrendLabs [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) ![When you see this chart, do you really want to go short Tesla ?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-Dec-05-2025-02-39-52-5139-PM.jpg) ![When you see this chart, do you really want to go short Tesla ?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/11-Dec-05-2025-02-39-52-5139-PM.jpg) 5 Dec 2025 - - - #### Gold's long-term correlation with the S&P 500 has just reached an extremely high level, only seen in...August 2007. Source: Guilherme Tavares i3 invest [#equities|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) [#gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) ![Gold's long-term correlation with the S&P 500 has just reached an extremely high level, only seen in...August 2007.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Dec-05-2025-02-17-12-2216-PM.jpg) ![Gold's long-term correlation with the S&P 500 has just reached an extremely high level, only seen in...August 2007.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Dec-05-2025-02-17-12-2216-PM.jpg) 5 Dec 2025 - - - #### Wall Street just dropped its 2026 stock market forecast... and they're expecting another year of double-digit gains for US equities! ๐Ÿš€ The consensus among major investment banks surveyed by the FT sees the S&P 500 soaring past 7,500 by the end of 2026โ€”a roughly 10% increase from current levels. What's fueling the bull market? ๐Ÿ“Œ The Triumvirate: Analysts at Morgan Stanley point to "easy fiscal, monetary and regulatory policy," including the estimated $129bn in corporate tax cuts from the Trump administration. ๐Ÿ“ŒAI Tailwinds: The market believes it has shrugged off recent jitters over Big Tech valuations. Companies like Nvidia, the world's first $5T company, continue to power the index. ๐Ÿ“ŒRate Cuts: Investors are pricing in 3-4 quarter-point Fed rate cuts by the end of next year, boosting sentiment. The Great Debate: ๐Ÿ‚ Most Bullish (Deutsche Bank): Sees the S&P hitting a massive 8,000, betting on corporate earnings broadening out beyond tech. ๐Ÿป Most Cautious (Bank of America): Forecasts just 7,100, warning that AI spending and data center build-out have yet to appear in better earnings. "For now investors are buying the dream." Note however that while such gains would mark the seventh year of double-digit gains in the past eight, they would represent a slowdown from the 16.6 per cent rise so far in 2025 and the average over the past decade - see chart below https://lnkd.in/eKYt6PK7 Source: FT [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![Wall Street just dropped its 2026 stock market forecast... and they're expecting another year of double-digit gains for US equities! ๐Ÿš€](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-Dec-05-2025-02-15-29-3012-PM.jpg) ![Wall Street just dropped its 2026 stock market forecast... and they're expecting another year of double-digit gains for US equities! ๐Ÿš€](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/4-Dec-05-2025-02-15-29-3012-PM.jpg) 4 Dec 2025 - - - #### In case you missed it... The Russell 2000 index is well ahead of the Nasdaq100 $NDX over the past 6 months. Source: The Market Ear, LSEG Workspace [#equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) ![In case you missed it... The Russell 2000 index is well ahead of the Nasdaq100 $NDX over the past 6 months.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Dec-04-2025-04-11-09-3650-PM.jpg) ![In case you missed it... The Russell 2000 index is well ahead of the Nasdaq100 $NDX over the past 6 months.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/6-Dec-04-2025-04-11-09-3650-PM.jpg) โฎโฎ [โฎ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/93) [92](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/92) [93](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/93) [94](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/94) [95](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/95) [96](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/96) [โฏ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/95) [โฏโฏ](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities/page/312?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. Follow us ## **Thinking** out loud - - - - ## **Investing** with intelligence Our latest research, commentary and market outlooks #### [Weekly Market Update](https://blog.syzgroup.com/fast-food-for-thoughts/tag/weekly-market-update?hsLang=en) #### [Focus](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/focus?hsLang=en) #### [Asset Allocation Insights](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/asset-allocation-insights?hsLang=en) #### [Semi-annual Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/slow-food-for-thoughts/tag/semi-annual-outlook?hsLang=en) - [Contact](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/contact-us/form) - [Terms & conditions](https://www.syzgroup.com/sites/default/files/document/2021-12/001-2_en-general_terms_and_conditions_w.pdf) - [Data protection notice](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/data-protection-notice) - [Cookies policy](https://www.syzgroup.com/en/legal-notices) - [Syzgroup.com](https://www.syzgroup.com/)