Over half of bond ETFs are now trading at a discount
Spikes in this number have been a pretty reliable bottom signal in the past. That said we not quite near the last two spikes but close.. Source: psarofagis thru Eric Balchunas, Bloomberg
The longest duration bond ETF ($ZROZ) is down over 60% from its peak in 2020 and now has a negative return over the last 10 years. Bond ETF Returns...
Source: Charlie Bilello
The drawdown for the long-term Treasury ETF $TLT is now more extreme that the S&P’s drawdown during the Dot Com Crash:
Source: Bespoke
Over the last 3 years, the US Money Supply (M2) has increased by 14%, US inflation (CPI) has increased by 18%, and National Debt has grown by 24%
And over that time the US dollar Index ETF has gained 19% while the Gold ETF has lost 5%. As eveyone predicted... Source: Charlie Bilello
ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF was the first Bitcoin ETF to trade on a major exchange in the US, launched Q4 2021 at the height of the last bull market
The ETF currently holds 35,890 BTC, and is the oldest and largest fund in the space. How much Bitcoin does each ETFs hold? 👇 Source: Coingecko
The China technology ETF was launched in December 2009. Total returns since then...
China Tech ETF $CQQQ: +62% Nasdaq 100 ETF $QQQ: +832% Source: Charlie Bilello
The Total US Bond Market ETF now has a negative return over the last 7 years. $BND
Source: Charlie Bilello
Bond tracking ETF, $TLT, just closed at its lowest level since February 2011
The ETF is now officially down 50% from its high just 3 years ago in 2020. Yet, investors continue to desperately pour money into Treasuries despite the massive underperformance. Indeed, despite the rise in bond yields, investors keep piling into $TLT (iShares US Treasuries 20year+) etf. Another $750m last week as 60/40 portfolios are stubbornly allocating funds to this underperforming asset, hoping for a return to a disinflationary environment. As mentioned by Eric Balchunas / Bloomberg, it is quite rare seeing an ETF taking in so much money ($16b YTD, #2 overall) while being down so much and so consistently (especially when you can get just as much yield with no duration risk...). Such a behaviour happened with the China Internet ETF $KWEB... not a great omen... Source: Bloomberg, Eric Balchunas, Tavi Costa
