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Bank Syz Ltd. accepts no liability for any loss arising from the use of this document. ## Straight from the Desk # **Syz** the moment Live feeds, charts, breaking stories, all day long. - [All](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment) - [equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/equities) - [United States](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-states) - [Macroeconomics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/macroeconomics) - [Food for Thought](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/food-for-thought) - [markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/markets) - [Central banks](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/central-banks) - [bitcoin](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bitcoin) - [Fixed Income](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) - [geopolitics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) - [AI](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ai) - [Asia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/asia) - [europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) - [gold](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/gold) - [Commodities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/commodities) - [investing](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/investing) - [Technology](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technology) - [Crypto](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/crypto) - [technical analysis](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/technical-analysis) - [nvidia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/nvidia) - [oil](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/oil) - [china](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/china) - [ETF](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/etf) - [earnings](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/earnings) - [Forex](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/forex) - [energy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/energy) - [banking](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/banking) - [magnificent-7](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/magnificent-7) - [Alternatives](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/alternatives) - [Volatility](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/volatility) - [Real Estate](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/real-estate) - [apple](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/apple) - [emerging-markets](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/emerging-markets) - [google](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/google) - [Middle East](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/middle-east) - [switzerland](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/switzerland) - [tesla](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/tesla) - [United Kingdom](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/united-kingdom) - [amazon](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/amazon) - [microsoft](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/microsoft) - [assetmanagement](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/assetmanagement) - [ethereum](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/ethereum) - [meta](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/meta) - [russia](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/russia) - [Industrial-production](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/industrial-production) - [Healthcare](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/healthcare) - [ESG](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/esg) - [Global Markets Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global-markets-outlook) - [Turkey](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/turkey) - [inflation](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/inflation) - [bankruptcy](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/bankruptcy) - [brics](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/brics) - [Market Outlook](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-outlook) - [performance](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/performance) - [africa](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/africa) - [LLM](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/llm) - [Global](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/global) - [Market News](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/market-news) - [Weekly Equities](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/weekly-equities) Show more 2 Jul 2024 - - - #### A maps of 2024 French legislative election 1st round next round is 7th of July Source: FT [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![A maps of 2024 French legislative election 1st round](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719780967317.jpg) ![A maps of 2024 French legislative election 1st round](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719780967317.jpg) 2 Jul 2024 - - - #### Euro starts slightly higher to the week following French election in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right party is poised to dominate the first round. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![Euro starts slightly higher to the week following French election in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right party is poised to dominate the first round.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719780601618.jpg) ![Euro starts slightly higher to the week following French election in which Marine Le Pen’s far-right party is poised to dominate the first round.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719780601618.jpg) 2 Jul 2024 - - - #### FRENCH LOWER HOUSE SNAP ELECTIONS FIRST TAKE 1) French far-right has strong lead in France's 1st voting round. The National Rally (RN) was projected to get between 33% and 34.2% of the vote. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition was set to get between 28.5% and 29.6% and Macron’s centrist alliance between 21.5% and 22.4%. 2) The exit polls were in line with opinion polls ahead of the election, but provided little clarity on whether the RN will be able to form a government to "cohabit" with the pro-EU Macron after next Sunday's run-off. As projections show between 240 to 270 seats won at the second round, the RN could thus get a relative majority in Parliament. Le Pen party needs 289 seats for a majority in the second round French ballot. Bottom-line \>\>\> The National Rally is likely to win the elections. Question is would it be a RELATIVE or ABSOLUTE majority. There are 3 possible outcomes: 1/ Absolute majority (Bardella as Prime Minister) Expect modest OAT-Bund spread widening and another (modest) downside leg for French equities (especially “national victims”) 2/ Minority majority / Hung parliament Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread widening and French equities stabilize 3/ Caretaker or Technical government Expect a modest OAT-Bund spread tightening and French equities rebound (especially “national victims”). The euro is currently STRENGTHENING as Asia trading just started. This means that markets are now expecting a HUNG PARLIAMENT with no Prime Minister coming from Rassemblement National. Even of the party from Mrs Le Pen win the election, they will refuse to appoint Bardella as PM. This opens the door to a Prime Minster coming from the center or a technical one. This means political paralysis but markets can probably live with this... [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![FRENCH LOWER HOUSE SNAP ELECTIONS](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719780136710.jpg) ![FRENCH LOWER HOUSE SNAP ELECTIONS](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719780136710.jpg) 1 Jul 2024 - - - #### Mind the gap: The French debt ratio is almost twice as high as the German debt ratio. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![Mind the gap: The French debt ratio is almost twice as high as the German debt ratio.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719748655176.jpg) ![Mind the gap: The French debt ratio is almost twice as high as the German debt ratio.](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719748655176.jpg) 1 Jul 2024 - - - #### France | Macron’s Approval Drops Two Days Ahead of French Election President Emmanuel Macron’s approval rating fell to the lowest level in three months, delivering a boost to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally party just two days before voting starts in France’s legislative election. Support for Macron dropped six points to 36%, the worst showing since March, according to a Toluna-Harris Interactive poll for LCI TV published on Friday. Source: Bloomberg [#geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![France | Macron’s Approval Drops Two Days Ahead of French Election](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719652110628.jpg) ![France | Macron’s Approval Drops Two Days Ahead of French Election](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1719652110628.jpg) 28 Jun 2024 - - - #### France vs German 10 year spread keeps moving even higher... Source: The Market Ear [#Fixed Income|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/fixed-income) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![France vs German 10 year spread keeps moving even higher...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/7-Jun-28-2024-08-52-32-6048-AM.jpg) ![France vs German 10 year spread keeps moving even higher...](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/7-Jun-28-2024-08-52-32-6048-AM.jpg) 27 Jun 2024 - - - #### #french #elections: Former President François Hollande back to business? Hollande is running for a seat in Parliament and Macron didn't put any candidate in front of him. In the (plausible) scenario of a hung parliament, Hollande could be chosen by Macron as Prime Minister of a unity government. [#geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![#french #elections: Former President François Hollande back to business?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jun-27-2024-10-12-55-3599-AM.jpg) ![#french #elections: Former President François Hollande back to business?](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/1-Jun-27-2024-10-12-55-3599-AM.jpg) 26 Jun 2024 - - - #### Latest IFOP poll for lower-house snap election in France This shows far-right way ahead (36% in blue) ahead of far left coalition (28.5% in red) while incumbent Macron's center-right party comes 3rd (21% in orange). It seems that far-right will at least win relative majority [#geopolitics|](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/geopolitics) [#europe](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe) ![Latest IFOP poll for lower-house snap election in France](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jun-26-2024-12-48-22-1938-PM.jpg) ![Latest IFOP poll for lower-house snap election in France](https://blog.syzgroup.com/hubfs/5-Jun-26-2024-12-48-22-1938-PM.jpg) ❮❮ [❮](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/39) [38](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/38) [39](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/39) [40](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/40) [41](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/41) [42](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/42) [❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/41) [❯❯](https://blog.syzgroup.com/syz-the-moment/tag/europe/page/55?hsLang=en) ## **Thinking** out loud Sign up for our weekly email highlighting the most popular posts. 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