Syz the moment

Japanese investors sold $61.9 billion of Treasuries in Q3 2024, the most on RECORD. Chinese funds dumped $51.3 billion, the second largest on record. Japan and China are two world's biggest foreign holders of US government debt. Source: Global Markets Investor

$TLT $AGG Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA

Europe’s Treasury holdings have risen by $1.5 trillion with the rest of the world acquiring $1.7 trillion of bonds. On the other hand, China and Japan's holdings have shrunk by ~$500 and ~$100 billion, respectively. Overall, total foreign holdings as a share of outstanding federal debt have dropped from 35% to 24%, near the lowest level in 18 years. This is the consequence of rapidly rising public debt with the supply of Treasuries rising ~$15 trillion over the last decade. Foreign demand for Treasuries cannot keep up with skyrocketing US debt. Source: The Kobeissi Letter

The 30-year US Treasury jumped by a massive 22 basis points, the biggest spike since the COVID CRISIS. At the same time, the 10-year yield jumped by 16 basis points, to the highest since July. Meanwhile, the Fed is going to cut today.... Source: Global Markets Investor

Russell futures vs the 10 year trading with a gap not seen in ages. Source: The Market Ear

This should not come as a surprise, Eurizon SLJ Research's Stephen Jen says: When the debt stock is 99% of GDP, and the govt imposes the largest tax hike post-WWII and the largest increase in spending in multi-decades, why should one be surprised that the bond market shows signs of indigestion? Source: HolgerZ, FT

With Interest Expense soaring and US debt/GDP at 125% & rising, the only way the US can keep USTs nominally money good are via negative real rates. hence the gold outperformance. Source: Bloomberg, Luke Gromen

The yield on the 10y US bond is now higher than the earnings yield of the S&P 500... Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg