The correlation between US stocks and bonds over the last 3 years (0.73) is the highest on record.
Source: Charlie Bilello
This is truly historic: China’s 30-year government bond yield has dropped below Japan’s 30-year yield for the first time ever.
Over the last 4 years, China’s bond yield has declined by a whopping 215 basis points. This comes as China’s economy has slowed and experienced 6 straight quarters of deflation, the longest streak since 1999. At the same time, Japan’s bond yield has risen 160 basis points as inflation has picked up in the country. In the past, Japan had seen 3 decades of economic stagnation and had suffered 25 years of deflation starting in the 1990s. Is China entering its own "japanification" economic phase? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Augur Infinity
China 10 Yr Yield is dropping like a stone.
Irving Fisher Debt Deflation spiral in real time? 1.63% Source: James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy
The Japanification of China: This has to be a contender for the chart of 2024 (30y bond yields).
Source: Albert Edwards
Next year, $3.08 trillion in US Treasury notes and bonds—about 12% of the total—will mature.
At current rates of ~4.46%, rolling this debt would raise the interest expense 54% over the current average coupon of 2.88%. That is an extra $48.7 billion in annual interest expense. Source: Bloomberg, Joe Consorti
10-Year Treasury Yield closes at highest level in almost 8 months 🚨
Source. Barchart
The long S&P500 ($SPY) / short US treasuries 20y+ ($TLT) makes a lot of sense from a macro perspective but is very consensual and looks very extended
See ratio below "In the end, trees don't grow to the sky, and few things go to zero." Howard Marks Source: Guilherme Tavares @i3_invest
Is this the Santa Rally?
US Mortgage Rates Surged Back Over 7% Today Source: Amy Nixon on X
