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8 Feb 2024

The US government sold a record $42 billion of 10-year notes Wednesday at a lower-than-anticipated yield.

The notes were awarded at 4.093%, compared with a when-issued yield of about 4.105% moments before 1 p.m. New York time, the bidding deadline. The lower yield indicates stronger demand than traders anticipated. The auction result broke a streak of tails — or a weaker result for the previous four monthly sales . source : bloomberg

7 Feb 2024

The bond-stock correlation is crashing to its lowest level in months...

Source: www.zerohedge.com

5 Feb 2024

China 10Y yield moves below 2.47%, breaking Covid19 lockdown lows.

China 10Y yield moves below 2.47%, breaking Covid19 lockdown lows. With local equity market imploding and real estate in freefall, fears of a Japanese style deflationary spiral are growing. Should China devalue the renminbi ? Chart vy Sylvain Baude, CFA, Bloomberg

5 Feb 2024

Something to keep in mind...

Source. Michel A.Arouet

5 Feb 2024

🇹🇷 A Surprise Resignation at the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) 🌟

Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan's sudden resignation from the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) has stirred questions about its impact on monetary policy and financial markets. Erkan, who made history as the first woman to lead the CBT, took office less than eight months ago with a mandate to adopt a more orthodox monetary policy. She swiftly raised the benchmark interest rate to 45% to combat soaring inflation. Following Erkan's exit, her deputy, Fatih Karahan, assumed leadership. With experience from the New York Federal Reserve and Amazon, Karahan is expected to maintain a strict monetary stance. He affirmed a commitment to monetary tightening until inflation aligns with the CBT's goals. This transition arrives amid high consumer price inflation, expected to remain around 65% for January. Karahan's appointment underscores the nation's policy continuity and commitment to economic stability through orthodox monetary measures. As financial markets react, we'll closely watch the CBT's policy decisions under Governor Karahan's leadership and their impact on the Turkish economy. 🇹🇷📈 Source: Bloomberg #CBT #TurkeyEconomy #MonetaryPolicy #MarketImpact

1 Feb 2024

Bank of England day ! A Shift in Inflation Outlook and Monetary Policy?

💡 Today, the Bank of England (BOE) is convening for its highly anticipated meeting, and we're closely monitoring it for potential shifts in their monetary policy tone. The BOE's impending Monetary Policy Committee decision promises to be intriguing, with current expectations leaning towards maintaining the benchmark rate at 5.25%. 📉 Indeed, a significant twist in the narrative has occurred. The UK's inflation outlook has undergone a substantial revision, with current projections indicating a return to the 2% inflation target by the summer of 2024 – a whole year earlier than previously anticipated. This could have far-reaching implications. 📊 Adding to the intrigue is the possibility of a single vote in favor of a rate cut and a potential softening of the BOE's previous tightening stance. While the risk remains that the BOE might stick to its hawkish position, the evolving economic landscape could set the stage for an earlier easing cycle, potentially commencing as soon as June. 💬 The shifting dynamics of inflation and the subsequent responses by central banks are pivotal indicators for market movements. Fixed income investments may see considerable benefits from these potential developments.

29 Jan 2024

China's holdings of US Treasuries continue to move in a straight line lower

Their holdings of US Treasuries have declined by $300 billion since 2021. Currently, China holds just under $800 billion of US Treasuries, levels not seen since 2009. As interest rates are peaking, the foreign private sector has been slowing purchases. Also, as China faces increasing economic headwinds, it is likely this trend resumes.

22 Jan 2024

10-Year Treasury Largest Short Position in History 🚨: Hedge Funds are now short more than 889,000 contracts on the 10-Year Treasury, the largest 10-Year Treasury short position in history

Source: Barchart

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