BREAKING: The 10-year note yield is now up 90 basis points YTD and nearing 4.70% for the first time since November 2023.
As treasury yields rise, we are seeing further pressure on stocks and other risky assets. Meanwhile, the base case now shows just 2 interest rate cuts in 2024. Higher for longer is officially back and interest rates are surging quickly. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Current treasury issuance exceeded the level seen only during the deepest Covid lockdown.
At full employment, imagine what will happen during next recession. Source: Michel A.Arouet
According to Alfonso Peccatiello, a $1 trillion worth liquidity wave is about to be unleashed on the US economy!
He is not talking about Powell or the Fed. He is talking about Treasury Secretary Yellen unleashing a large sum of stimulus further boosting the US economy right before elections! How? By almost emptying a $1 trillion+ Treasury General Account!
US Treasury Real Yield Curve Returns to Positive Territory!
The US Treasury real yield curve (2s10s) has shifted back into positive territory for the first time since 2022. This comes on the heels of a pronounced steepening trend that has unfolded since the beginning of the year. While this development is certainly noteworthy, it's essential to note that the current real yield curve level still trails its historical average, hovering around 0.6%. The recent uptick in interest rates, combined with the steepening of the real yield curve, raises questions about the potential implications for risky assets. Indeed, we're already witnessing some early signals in the High Yield market. The CDX HY index, which monitors single CDS of US HY companies, has shown notable widening from 310bps to 370bps over the past few weeks, indicating heightened risk perceptions among investors. With this in mind, how might further increases in interest rates, combined with a steeper real yield curve, impact risky assets moving forward? Source: Bloomberg
The 10-year US Treasury yield (blue) is marching back towards its high last October.
Recall that - at the time - US Treasury announced that it would issue less longer-term paper, which is what stopped that rise. That card has now been played and yields are rising again... Source: Robin Brooks
The 10y annualized return of US Treasuries has dropped to a 65-year low of 0.6%.
The 2020s era of war, protectionism, fiscal excess, scarce energy/housing/labor killed the 4 decades-long bond bull market. Source: BofA; HolgerZ
Yesterday was very painful for diversified 60-40 (equities / bonds) portfolios
Source: Bloomberg
Money market fund levels to record high of $6.111 trillion
Source: WinfieldSmart
