The Global Fixed Income Landscape Regains Its Color! 📈🌐
After a dip to -4% year-to-date just a month ago, the global fixed income investment universe is now on a sharp rebound, driven by improving inflation signals hinting at a potential rate peak by central banks (already materialized in some emerging market countries). The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index, a widely tracked and comprehensive global bond indicator, has returned to positive territory in 2023 since last week. This upturn signifies a positive development for fixed income investors who have navigated challenges over the past three years, with a cumulative total return of -20% since the end of 2020. Are we entering a sunnier future for fixed income investments? ☀️ Source: Bloomberg
central banks have become dominant holders
Source: Michel A.Arouet
What a day...
The US 10-year note yield fell sharply to 4.49%, after CPI inflation hits 3.2% in October. The 10-year note yield went down 20 basis points in 24 hours. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index $DXY had its biggest drop in more than a year. Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Barchart
Looks like it will be one of the most crowded trades to come
61% of Fund Managers from BofA Fund Manager survey expect lower bond yields, most on record, despite 2nd highest ever saying fiscal policy is too stimulative. Source: BofA, HolgerZ
In a regime-shift from historical norms, the US Treasury yields are broadly trending higher with USA Sovereign credit risk...
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
The U.S. Treasury market visualized
Source: X @concodanomics thru Audrey Wang, CFA🇭🇰
Investor Repositioning on HY Revealed in Latest BoFA Credit Survey 🔄📈
The recent BofA Credit Investor Survey reveals significant shifts in market sentiment. For Investment Grade (IG) investors, net positioning dropped to -8% net underweight in November from a +8% net overweight in September. Conversely, High Yield (HY) witnessed an uptick, reaching +18% net overweight in November, the highest since Jan-2022. Notably, HY investors are more optimistic about spreads, with the net share expecting wider spreads dropping significantly for the 3 and 6-month horizons. Delving deeper into investor positioning, the HY landscape presents a nuanced picture. The primary repositioning in November focused on the #frontend (1-3y) and #higherquality of the HY. Many asset allocators are embracing a barbell strategy, blending exposure to the intermediate/long end of high-quality corporate bonds or Treasuries with a portion invested in the front end of the US HY, enhancing the average yield. The goal is to navigate economic uncertainties by benefiting from the safety of high-quality fixed income and compensating for potential defaults in the HY space. Could this strategic approach push the HY-IG Yield Ratio lower, considering it already reaches post-GFC lows? #CreditMarkets #Investing #FinanceInsights 📊💼 Source: BoFA
Moody’s cuts U.S. credit outlook from stable to negative. Will markets just shrug it off on Monday?
Source: Trend Spider
