Syz the moment

Saddled with the kind of bloated deficits that were once unthinkable, these countries — along with Japan — will sell a net $2.1 trillion of new bonds to finance their 2024 spending plans, a 7% increase from last year, according to estimates from Bloomberg Intelligence.

Source: Althea Spinozzi, Saxo, Bloomberg

Today's successful auction of the UK 4.75% 2043 bonds, raising GBP 2.25 billion at a yield of 4.391%, represents a significant rise from the 1.36% yield in the previous auction in October 2021. 📈 Highlighting investor confidence, the auction achieved a strong bid-to-cover ratio of 3.6. Notably, the 20-year UK Gilt has climbed nearly 40bps from its late 2023 low. 🔍 With core inflation trends showing signs of stabilization, market participants are keenly awaiting signals from upcoming wage and inflation data. We are observing keen interest in how the yield curve will react, particularly with the anticipated new 30Y gilt syndication on the horizon. More steepening could be on the cards. 💷 Considering the estimated £76 billion gilt supply for Q1 2024, a key question emerges: Can today's robust auction mitigate the recent selloff, primarily driven by substantial global duration issuance and reassessment of aggressive rate cut expectations? Source: Bloomberg

The US 10 year is flirting with the massive 4% levels again. A close above it and things could become even more "dynamic" to the upside. Note 21 day right here, while 50 day remains way higher. Source: Refinitiv, TME

Ahead of US jobs data, an Options Trader bet $625,000 that the 10-Year Treasury Yield would surge to at least 4.15% by Friday's close. If the yield were to jump to 4.20%, the bet would pay the trader $10 million in profit. Source: Barchart, Bloomberg

Source: BlackRock, Ayesha Tariq, CFA

Source: Win Smart, CFA, FT

Source: Steno Research, Bloomberg, Macrobond