Brent crude futures extended gains on Monday, inching up amid political uncertainty in major producing countries after Iran’s president died in a helicopter crash.
But as always, things should be put into perspective: Iran has raised oil output over the last few years, with majority of exports going to buyers in China. Output is now >3mln bbl/d, the highest since 2019, making it the 3rd-biggest producer among OPEC members. But there are questions about how much higher Iran can take production considering capacity constraints. (BBG) Source: HolgerZ
FREIGHT RATES ARE RISING AGAIN
"No news (out of Gaza) is bad news for Shipping-flation Freight rates out of China are rising rapidly again and we are likely to see the pass-through to goods-flation in the West already in May/June". Source: Andreas Steno Larsen
We've seen a pretty big move in Presidential betting odds over the last week
Trump now holds a 6.3 point lead on Biden and Republicans are now on top in the generic head to head. From @maximlott at https://lnkd.in/dT6EHQvp thru bespoke
A new set of polls reveals that Donald Trump is leading President Biden in five out of six critical battleground states
as young and non-white voters grow increasingly dissatisfied with the current president. Source: www.zerohedge.com, FoxNews
Sell in May and go away? Not in election years…
History shows that the mid-May to mid-June seasonal period is very strong during election years. Source: David Marlin, Goldman Sachs
The Suez Canal ship transit volume has deteriorated further.
Source: The Daily Shot
The chart below shared by Yahoo Finance newsletters thru Ryan Detrick, CMT shows that big starts to an election year (like '24) tend to see chop and weakness into June.
https://lnkd.in/eANaDtsN
Big Election Year Q1s Dip April-May Before Gains Last 7 Months.
2024 is 3rd best Election Q1 since 1950 tracking. Historically, there is a dip in April-May before gains till year-ned. There was only 2 losses in the last 7 months of election years since 1950 (2000 & 2008) Source: Ryan Detrick, CMT, AlmanacTrader
