When you invest in US debt, think twice...
In Q4 2023, nominal GDP grew by 3.2% according to data on Wednesday. This would mean a $334.5 billion increase in nominal GDP. Meanwhile, over the same time period the US added $834.2 billion of debt. In other words, it cost us $2.50 of debt for every $1.00 of GDP last quarter, according to Zerohedge. As Fed Chair Powell recently said, "we are on an unsustainable fiscal path." What's the long term plan here? Source: The Kobeissi Letter, www.zerohedge.com
Interest rate cut expectations continue to scale back: Markets now see a ~38% chance of 4 interest rate cuts in 2024
Just over a month ago, the base case showed a 50%+ chance of 6 interest rate cuts in 2024. Meanwhile, odds of a March rate cut are down to 3% and odds of a May rate cut are down to 19%. For the first time in 2024, markets are close to the Fed's latest guidance of 3 cuts in 2024. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Artificial Intelligence is projected to increase the GDP by 130% according to Cathie Wood's Ark Investment Management
This is significantly higher than all major advances in technology including the Steam Engine and the Internet. Source: Barchart, Ark Invest
Maturity Wall
Roughly $930 billion in commercial mortgage loans are scheduled to mature in 2024. source : tme
Germany economic challenges in one chart
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt
In case you missed it: Global debt surged by >$15tn in 2023 reaching a new record high of $313tn.
55% of this rise originated from mature markets, mainly driven by US, France, & Germany. BUT global debt-to-GDP ratio saw a decline of ~2ppts to 330% in 2023, acc to IIF. This marked the third consecutive annual drop. Source: HolgerZ, IIF
US equities are shrugging off higher rates.
The chart below shows the level of the S&P 500 Index and the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield. Yields have risen in 2024 but unlike prior episodes of rising yields last year, the S&P 500 has moved higher as well. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Source: Edward Jones
House prices adjusted for inflation since 1975.
The charts for Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the UK look like a s**tcoin during a pump. The Japanese real estate bubble of the 1990s is barely visible as a comparison... Source: Bloomberg, MacroAlf
