In case you missed it...
The NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey 6-month Ordering Intentions fell to the LOWEST READING IN THE HISTORY OF THE INDEX! Source: Ronnie Stoeferle @RonStoeferle @kevinmuir, Bloomberg
china first-quarter GDP topped Reuters poll expectations for a 5.1% growth year on year, building on a recovery that began in late 2024, thanks to a broad policy stimulus push.
▶️Retail sales in March rose by 5.9% year on year, sharply beating analysts’ estimates for a 4.2% growth. Industrial output expanded by 7.7% from a year earlier, versus median estimates of 5.8%. ▶️The urban unemployment rate slipped to 5.2% in March, following a two-year high of 5.4% in February. Source: CNBC
China has the largest manufacturing workforce on Earth, by far.
Source: UN, Markets & Mayhem
In Germany, investor confidence in the economy has taken a sharp hit following US President Trump's erratic trade policy.
The ZEW Institute’s expectations index plunged to -14 in April, down from 51.6 in March – a massive drop. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a decline, but only to +10. The unpredictable shifts in US trade policy have fuelled global uncertainty, which is now weighing heavily on economic expectations in Germany. At the same time, any initial optimism about the new government's spending plans has quickly faded. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Last week’s trade data shows an incredibly bleak picture for the economy:
- 49% drop in global container bookings - 64% drop in U.S. imports. - 30% drop in U.S. exports. If this continues for more than a few weeks, there is no doubt that we are headed for tough times ahead. Source: Brian Krassenstein @krassenstein on X
$AAPL Apple gets upgrade at KeyBanc, Wedbush keeps bullish views amid Trump's tariffs scenario.
$APPL is up +4% Source: @DivesTech
Global M2 (in orange) vs bitcoin lagged 10 weeks (in blue)
M2 proxy vs BTC continues to hold. Could the surge in Global M2 push $BTC to new highs?
Crazy numbers coming out of China
A $100 billion (goods) surplus in March, a $275 billion goods surplus for q1 (up from $185 billion last year) and a surplus of nearly $1.1 trillion over the last 4 quarters... The easy explanation is tariff front running. But it seems "too easy" as an explanation. China's exports to the US and the EU look identical -- and there is no "reciprocal" tariff threat out of the EU. Same story with emerging markets: more exports and fewer imports. Source: Brad Setser @Brad_Setser on X
