US debt has consistently risen regardless of which party is in power
Source: The Rabbit Hole @TheRabbitHole84
Oxford Economics thinks maybe everything is just being rerouted thru Vietnam
Source: RBC, Oxford Economics
The sky is the limit... Hartnett BofA
Porky Big Beautiful Bill set to raise US debt ceiling $5tn to $41tn. Source: BofA thru Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Notable: Coming back to yesterday's US non farm payrolls
-> The 147,000 job gains in June were almost all (over 75%) in healthcare and government. Government: +73,000 Healthcare: +39,000 The government job gains looked like this: State gov't education +40,000 State gov't non-education +7,000 Local gov't education +23,000 Local gov't non education +10,000 Federal gov't -7,000 Source: Heather Long on X
Overall 2025 fed rate cut expectations tumbled on "Big Beautiful Bill" being passed & better us payrolls
Source: www.zerohedge.com, Bloomberg
⚠️YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS UP
‼️ The US job numbers will likely be REVISED DOWN by nearly 800,000 for the 9-month period ending December 2024, according to QCEW data. ▶️ This means non-farm payrolls were OVERSTATED by ~88,888 jobs each month during this period. Source: Global Markets Investor
ADP Yesterday -- "We use social security numbers and we process paychecks. Private sector lost -33,000 jobs in June."
NFP Today -- "You're wrong! We do phone survey. Sometimes they answer, sometimes they don't. We show private sector created +74,000 jobs in June." Source: Jaguar Analytics
▶️ A "pro-growth" job report ‼️stocks surged and bonds sold off after the US economy blew past expectations, adding 147,000 jobs in June (vs 106k expected).
▶️The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% as the private-sector survey showed 93,000 new jobs created, and labor force participation rate dipped slightly to 62.3%, suggesting fewer people are actively working or looking for work. ▶️Meanwhile, wage growth came in softer than expected, with average hourly earnings rising 3.7% year-over-year. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
