JUST IN 🚨:
The odds of a U.S. Recession occurring this year just soared to 50% on Polymarket 👀 Source: Barchart
ISM Manufacturing Priced Paid at 69.4 - Highest since inflation's peak in June 2022
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
On April 1, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -3.7%.
Adjusting for gold imports, the model now sees -1.4% GDP contraction in Q1 2025. Just 2 months ago, they saw GDO growing by +3.8% in the same period...
The Truflation US YoY inflation rate dropped from 1.76% to 1.38% — a considerable decline driven by key categories.
Which categories and sub-categories are driving the drop? 👉 Housing – all 3 subcategories are cooling: • Rented dwellings • Owned dwellings • Other lodging 👉 Transport – vehicle prices and other vehicle expenses are falling, even as gasoline edges up. Truflation continues to capture shifts in inflation dynamics in real time — well ahead of official data. Reminder: Over the past 3 months, the Truflation index has dropped from 3.11% to 1.38%. Is the Fed paying attention?
Is Trump's plan to reshore manufacturing already working?
This is the biggest increase in manufacturing jobs since October 22, which was followed by a 2 year manufacturing recession. Source: Bloomberg, www.zerohedge.com
Negative interest rates have made a return in Switzerland, as noted by Costa Vayenas
Specifically, the one-month CHF government bill yield indicates a scenario where holders of Swiss francs are willing to pay the borrower instead of receiving interest. Source: C. Vayenas
Richmond Fed asked companies how the plan to respond to tariffs.
Strong majority plan to raise prices... Source: Dario Perkins @darioperkins on X
A MIND-BLOWING chart:
The US budget deficit is set to average 6.3% over the next 30 years. This would be higher than any other period outside of major crises and wars. This also would be 2.5 percentage points above the past 50-year average... Source: Global Markets Investor
