In France and Italy, governments impose taxes to the tune of almost 50% (!) of GDP.
In the US, that’s barely 30%. Not a fun experience for productive individuals and companies in Europe... Source: Alf Macro on X
"Biggest macro imbalance in the world is the chronic undervaluation of China's Yuan. "
"China's trade surplus - once you look at goods net of commodities (blue) - was the largest ever in 2024. This is why tariffs on China will keep going higher after an already large 10% tariff..." Source: Robin Brooks
BREAKING: Elon Musk says millions of people over 140 years old are receiving Social Security benefits.
Source: WinSmart
In Germany, a ceasefire in Ukraine would add just 0.1ppts to Germany’s economic growth
—only half the boost expected in France, Italy, or Spain, according to Goldman Sachs. The reason? Germany would face a bigger economic drag from the return of Ukrainian refugees. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
WOW. Washington DC's economy looks like 2008:
Unemployment filings in Washington DC just SURGED +36% in one week to 3 TIMES the 2024 average. Over the last 6 weeks, unemployment filings are up +55%, now ABOVE 2008 levels. Since January 20th, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington DC. Furthermore, the year-to-date total has hit nearly 7,000. That's a whopping +55% increase over the previous 6 week period. Last week alone, claims surged +36%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US inflation decline has slowed but is NOT re-surging:
US inflation metrics which exclude outliers and one-time bumps as still declining but at a slower rate. January is also the seasonally worst month as firms tend to announce price raises at the start of the calendar year. Source: Global Markets Investor
BREAKING: January PPI inflation unexpectedly RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%.
Core PPI inflation was 3.6%, ABOVE expectations of 3.3%. PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023 while CPI jumped +0.5% month-over-month. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
On US inflation expectations, from @johnauthers daily note:
"The two-year breakeven has broken above 3% (the upper range of the Fed’s target) to its highest in two years, while the 10-year is also at a two-year high after reaching 2.5%. The breakeven for the five years starting five years hence, which the Fed tracks closely, remains anchored, but it’s obvious that markets are growing more jumpy about inflation." Source: Bloomberg, Mo El-Erian
