Goldman Sachs raises U.S. Recession odds to 35%
Source: Barchart
In Trump's first term, there was no discernible rise in inflation or drag on growth. Why?
👉 The answer lies in what economists call "currency offset." The dollar moved up by almost the exact amount as the tariffs did. After-tariff USD import prices didn't move. ➡️ Could we see something similar during Trump 2nd term? As mentioned by Lawrence McDonald on X, the context is different this time: Tariffs and inflation during Trump's first term - were after a long period of - a) global austerity, b) secular stagnation and c) Brexit's impact on the global economy. Tariffs and Inflation during Trump's 2nd term are taking place after a $16T fiscal and monetary overdosing... Source. Lawrence McDonald on X, Stephen Miran
The median household income necessary to purchase the median priced home for sale in the US ($124k) is now 57% higher than the current median household income ($79k).
This is the most unaffordable housing market in history. Source: Charlie Bilello @charliebilello
Japan | Tokyo inflation exceeds forecasts, keeping BOJ on rate hike path
- Bloomberg
On March 26, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -1.8%
The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is 0.2%. Source: AtlantaFed
US tariffs on April 2nd: Will it be not as bad as expected?
A “Trump put” ahead? Some articles caught a lot of bullish notice this weekend. S&P Futures are going UP this morning Source: Bloomberg, WSJ
⚠️German economic outlooks remains DIRE:
In 2024 the world's 3rd largest economy FELL by 0.2% following a 0.3% decline in 2023. This is the 2nd time since 1950 that GDP contracted for 2 years in a row. German IFO Economic Research Institute expects just 0.2% growth in 2025. Source. Global Markets Investor
Americans expect credit application REJECTIONS at a higher rate than ever:
The perceived likelihood of credit application rejections: Auto loan: 34%, the highest on record Mortgage: 48%, the highest on record Credit card: 32%, the 3rd-highest ever Card limit increase: 39% Source: Global Market Investors, Bloomberg
