Trump is not happy with “hawkish” Powell.
Source: @realDonaldTrump
Chinese debt pile is GIGANTIC: China's total debt to GDP rose to a RECORD of ~370%.
The share has DOUBLED over the last 14 years. This does not include shadow banking (outside traditional banking sector). China has a massive debt problem and it will not go away soon. Source: Apollo, Bloomberg, Global Markets Investor
Deutsche Bank recently updated their Trump tariff inflation forecasts as shown below:
If the 25% tariffs on Canada/Mexico have a 50% pass-through, PCE inflation would rise 80 bps. A 75% pass-through would add 110 bps to PCE inflation. The Fed won't like this. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Biden vs Trump on Inflation
During Biden’s presidency, Yahoo Finance tracked inflation in 26 categories that account for most of the things people spend money on. In 12 of those categories, prices rose by more than incomes during Biden’s four years overall. That included housing, transportation, and food, the three things the typical family spends the most on. During Trump’s four years, earnings rose by more than prices in every single one of those 26 categories. source : yahoo!finance
BREAKING: The US budget deficit hit a massive $711 BILLION for the first 3 months of Fiscal Year 2025.
This is ~$200 billion, or 39%, higher than in the same period last year. The deficit reached $2.0 TRILLION for the full calendar year 2024, up $248 billion YoY. Also, deficit spending rose from 6.4% to 6.9% GDP in 2024. Such a high percentage has never been seen outside of wars or major economic crises. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
China is, by far, the largest exporter.
Source: Jason Smith @ShangguanJiewen on X
Yesterday, the easing of US inflation fears sparked a huge surge higher in rate-cut expectations for 2025 (back up to 40bps from 28bps)...
Source: Bloomberg, zerohedge
The German economy has shrunk for 2nd year in a row ahead of elections, driven by both cyclical & structural challenges
German GDP declined by 0.2% in 2024, following a 0.3% drop in 2023. This marks only 2nd time since 1950 that econ has contracted for 2 consecutive yrs. Germany's prospects for 2025 remain bleak. Bundesbank predicts growth of just 0.2% and warns that another contraction is even possible if US President-elect Trump follows through on his tariff threats. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
