Will the US have to crash stocks to save bonds ???
Source: Michael A. Gayed
This is what happened to US government revenues from tariffs during Trump's first tradewar.
Source: DB
US growth is not a miracle, it is fully DEBT driven:
It took a MASSIVE $2.2 trillion in public debt to create $570 billion in GDP growth in 2024 (before revisions). In other words, it took $3.9 of debt to generate $1 of economic growth. Source: Global Markets Investor
The odds of the US economy entering a recession in 2025 have fallen to a fresh low of just 19%.
Since Election Day, the odds of the US economy entering a recession are down 35 percentage points, per @Kalshi .This comes after the preliminary reading of Q4 2024 GPD showed the US economy grew by 2.3%. Even as interest rates remain elevated and inflation rebounds, the US economy is growing. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
🚨What is happening with the eurozone economy?
Germany and France GDP fell 0.2% and 0.1% in Q4 2024. Italy's GDP was flat for the 2nd consecutive quarter. In effect, Euro-area economy did not grow in Q4 2024. Germany has contracted for 2 consecutive years in 2023 and 2024... Source: Bloomberg, Global Markets
🚨 US MACRO DATA & NFP RELEASED!
SOME SIGNS OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN BUT JOB MARKET AND CONSUMERS STAY STRONG 🚀 🔴 US GDP (Q4), 2.3% Vs. 2.6% Est (prev. 3.1%) Q4 GDP rose at an annualized rate of just 2.3% (lowest in 3 quarters), powered by a 4.3% surge in personal spending. Here are the details: - Personal consumption: 4.2% vs. 3.2% est. - Non-residential fixed investment: -2.2% (Q3: +4%) - Housing investment: +5.3% (Q3: -4.3%) - Exports: -0.8% (Q3: +9.6%) - Imports: -0.8% (Q3: +10.7%) 👉 Bottom-line: Consumption strong, but trade and business investment drag. 🔴PCE 4.2%, Exp. 3.2% (prev. 3.7%) Core PCE 2.5%, Exp. 2.5% (prev. 2.2%) 🔴US Jobless Claims, 207K Vs. 225K Est. (prev. 223K) 👉 Job market remains resilient ➡️ Overall, this still sounds like goldilocks. Growth is slowing down but remains resilient overall and the consumer is in good shape. Inflation risk remains but is not accelerating meaningfully with Core PCE in line with expectations.
BOC (Bank of Canada) ANNOUNCES AN END OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING
AND WILL GRADUALLY RESTART ASSET PURCHASES IN EARLY MARCH. Who will be next?
BREAKING: All federal employees who do not work in person by February 6 will get FIRED - President Donald J. Trump
President Donald Trump warned US federal employees to return to in-person work by February 6 or face termination. The government is offering buyouts, with departures permitted under a deferred resignation programme. Trump aims to reduce the federal workforce. "If they do not agree to show up to work in their office by February 6, they will be terminated. Therefore, we will be downscaling our government, which is something that the last 10 presidents have tried very hard to do, but failed," Trump said. "We think a very substantial number of people will not show up to work, and, therefore, our government will get smaller and more efficient," Trump told reporters on Wednesday. "And that's what we've been looking to do for many, many decades," he added. We may ask these people to prove that they didn't have another job during their so-called employment with the United States of America, because if they did, that would be unlawful," Trump said Source: India Today Source image: Graphic of Donald J. Trump saying "You're fired". The Spiggle Law Firm Marketing Team thru Forbes
