➡️ Liberation Day announcement brings US tariffs to levels not seen since the Smoot-Hawley.
➡️ Rough estimate of ~1.2% drag to US growth if they persist, before any retaliatory tariffs. ➡️ ~300bln/year revenue raise. ➡️ Canada & Mexico outcome is better than expected. ➡️ Europe & Japan is worse. Source: Bob Elliott
Here’s what investors consider to be the biggest risk to markets right now 👇
Source: Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow
CHINA URGES US TO IMMEDIATELY CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES
Source: Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital
Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate the US charges on around $3T of imported goods will now go up to 22%- the highest in a century
But remember, this is NOT a final number. Many things can happen. - China could negotiate a deal (or try to absorb the shock via more stimulus and weakening of the Yuan) - The EU could chose to retaliate - and the US escalates... - How will the rest of the world respond is very uncertain as well Expect a new high in the economic uncertainty index and lots of volatility ahead Source: chart: Bianco Research
U.S. President Trump imposed a 10% tariff on Heard and McDonald Islands—uninhabited except for penguins.
Source: Clash Report @clashreport
If the 34% tariff is on top of previous tariffs, China's average tariff rate is up 54 ppts this year, swamping what was done in President Trump's first term.
Question: How will China react? If China devalues the Yuan, that could trigger a major risk-off across the world... Source: Robin Brooks
JUST IN 🚨:
The odds of a U.S. Recession occurring this year just soared to 50% on Polymarket 👀 Source: Barchart
ISM Manufacturing Priced Paid at 69.4 - Highest since inflation's peak in June 2022
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
