The US is being hard on Europe.
However, the true (economic) enemy for the US is not Europe but China. As shown on the chart below by Robin Brooks, China's current account surplus in Q4 '24 is the largest ever.
In France and Italy, governments impose taxes to the tune of almost 50% (!) of GDP.
In the US, that’s barely 30%. Not a fun experience for productive individuals and companies in Europe... Source: Alf Macro on X
"Biggest macro imbalance in the world is the chronic undervaluation of China's Yuan. "
"China's trade surplus - once you look at goods net of commodities (blue) - was the largest ever in 2024. This is why tariffs on China will keep going higher after an already large 10% tariff..." Source: Robin Brooks
BREAKING: Elon Musk says millions of people over 140 years old are receiving Social Security benefits.
Source: WinSmart
In Germany, a ceasefire in Ukraine would add just 0.1ppts to Germany’s economic growth
—only half the boost expected in France, Italy, or Spain, according to Goldman Sachs. The reason? Germany would face a bigger economic drag from the return of Ukrainian refugees. Source: HolgerZ, Goldman Sachs
WOW. Washington DC's economy looks like 2008:
Unemployment filings in Washington DC just SURGED +36% in one week to 3 TIMES the 2024 average. Over the last 6 weeks, unemployment filings are up +55%, now ABOVE 2008 levels. Since January 20th, over 4,000 federal employees have filed first time unemployment claims in Washington DC. Furthermore, the year-to-date total has hit nearly 7,000. That's a whopping +55% increase over the previous 6 week period. Last week alone, claims surged +36%. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
US inflation decline has slowed but is NOT re-surging:
US inflation metrics which exclude outliers and one-time bumps as still declining but at a slower rate. January is also the seasonally worst month as firms tend to announce price raises at the start of the calendar year. Source: Global Markets Investor
BREAKING: January PPI inflation unexpectedly RISES to 3.5%, above expectations of 3.2%.
Core PPI inflation was 3.6%, ABOVE expectations of 3.3%. PPI inflation is now at its highest since February 2023 while CPI jumped +0.5% month-over-month. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
