On March 26, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -1.8%
The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is 0.2%. Source: AtlantaFed
US tariffs on April 2nd: Will it be not as bad as expected?
A “Trump put” ahead? Some articles caught a lot of bullish notice this weekend. S&P Futures are going UP this morning Source: Bloomberg, WSJ
⚠️German economic outlooks remains DIRE:
In 2024 the world's 3rd largest economy FELL by 0.2% following a 0.3% decline in 2023. This is the 2nd time since 1950 that GDP contracted for 2 years in a row. German IFO Economic Research Institute expects just 0.2% growth in 2025. Source. Global Markets Investor
Americans expect credit application REJECTIONS at a higher rate than ever:
The perceived likelihood of credit application rejections: Auto loan: 34%, the highest on record Mortgage: 48%, the highest on record Credit card: 32%, the 3rd-highest ever Card limit increase: 39% Source: Global Market Investors, Bloomberg
Categories that US adults are likely to cut back on if tariffs lead to higer prices
source : emarketer
The OECD published its latest economic outlook on Monday, downgrading its global growth projections for 2025 and 2026 in light of various political and economic uncertainties.
Source: Statista
Swiss Government Lowers Growth Forecasts Ahead of SNB Decision
The Swiss government has trimmed its economic growth outlook for 2025 and 2026, citing global trade tensions. SECO now expects: 📉 2025 GDP: 1.4% (previously 1.5%) 📉 2026 GDP: 1.6% (previously 1.7%) While growth remains below the long-term average of 1.8%, Switzerland is still expected to avoid a recession. This adjustment comes just before the Swiss National Bank’s policy decision on Thursday—a key event to watch. source : reuters
Riskier credit markets are starting to respond more significantly to the dislocation in US equity markets
Spreads on high-yield bonds rose the most since August yesterday. They're still relatively low on a historical basis, but the trajectory is catching many people's attention. Source: Lisa Abramowicz @lisaabramowicz1, Bloomberg
