China's out with some proper fiscal firepower: Highest official deficit target in 30+ years
Plus... CNY1.3 trillion in ultra-long special sovereign bonds CNY4.4 trillion in new special local govt bonds CNY500 billion in special sovereign bonds China on Wednesday set its GDP growth target for 2025 at “around 5%” and laid out stimulus measures to boost its economy amid escalating trade tensions with the U.S. Beijing raised its budget deficit target to “around 4%” of GDP from 3% last year, according to the official report, as the country’s top legislative body held its annual meeting. The 4% deficit would mark the highest on record going back to 2010, according to data accessed via Wind Information. The prior high was 3.6% in 2020, the data showed. Source: Bloomberg, David Ingles on X, CNBC
Short-term pain for long-term gain ???
Trump has mentioned both falling bond yields and a goal of balancing the budget… There will be an “adjustment period” and “some disturbance.” He is really going for it.
Ray Dalio: debt crisis could cause 'economic heart attack' for US economy in the next 3 years
In an interview with Bloomberg's Odd Lots podcast published Monday, Dalio said the US is on the brink of experiencing an "economic heart attack" within the next three years if the administration does not commit to actively reducing the deficit, which now makes up about 7.5% of GDP.
It seems that the market didn't like this chart at all
(ISM Manufacturing New orders & Price Paid) Source: Bloomberg, RBC
Some much needed liquidity is coming...
The TGA (Treasury General Account) is finally getting depleted Here comes the flood: Treasury injects avalanche of cash into the economy ($170BN in 3 days, the most since covid) as debt ceiling extraordinary measures are exhausted. Could this prop up risk? What is the Treasury General Account and why it matters? The TGA is used by the Treasury to hold cash to fund government operations. When the TGA balance is high, it means the Treasury is holding more cash than it is spending. This cash accumulation can occur due to higher-than-expected tax receipts or issuance of Treasury securities. Conversely, when the Treasury spends this cash, it injects liquidity into the financial system. Therefore, the TGA balance is a significant determinant of liquidity in global financial markets. Source: zerohedge
The US government RECESSION has begun:
Government + quasi-government education & health job addition accounts for ~70% of all payroll creation, down from ~85% in Feb 2024. It is expected this will fall even further in the coming months, meaning non-farm payrolls will weaken. Source: BofA
BREAKING - US INFLATION DATA RELEASED - Core PCE YoY 2.6% - lowest since March 2021
BULLISH! YoY Growth: PCE (Jan), 2.5% Vs. 2.5% Est. (prev. 2.6%) Core PCE, 2.6% Vs. 2.6% Est. (prev. 2.8%) MoM Growth: PCE (Jan), 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.3%) Core PCE, 0.3% Vs. 0.3% Est. (prev. 0.2%) Source: @CyclesWithBach, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
U.S. pending home sales have fallen to a new all-time low
Worse than Covid. Worse than 2008. Source: Bloomberg
