UPDATE: Weekly jobless claims jump to 241,000, higher than expected
Source: Stocktwits
The Wall Street Journal on China's latest economic data:
"A gauge of new export orders fell in April to its lowest reading since Covid-19 was ravaging the country in 2022, while overall manufacturing activity in China was the weakest in more than a year." The sharp declines reflect both the "bring forward" to beat the US tariffs and the impact of these tariffs. Source: Mo El Erian on X, Macrobond
On April 29, the GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q1 2025 is -2.7%.
The final alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold, is -1.5% Source: Atlanta Fed
In Germany, potential economic growth has dropped to just 0.5%, mainly because of falling productivity.
The last time Germany saw potential growth above 1% was back in 2018 — also the last year when productivity made a positive impact. For the new government to hit its target of lifting potential growth above 1% again, reviving productivity will be crucial, especially as the workforce continues to shrink. (Source: Natixis thru HolgerZ)
Market-implied US recession chance: 23% (within the next year)
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, Goldman Sachs
⚠️MASSIVE amount of US household wealth has been lost:
US household equity wealth has likely dropped by $ TRILLION year-to-date, the most in 3 YEARS. This may lead to further pullback in consumer spending as the top 10% account for 50% of total consumer expenditures. Source: BofA
In Germany, the private sector just shrank for 1st time in 4 months.
According to S&P Global, the Composite PMI (a key economic indicator) fell to 49.7 in April, dropping below the critical 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. The services sector was hit especially hard, with its index tumbling to 48.8 – the lowest in 14 months. This drop reflects growing worries about tariffs, as well as broader concerns around Germany’s economic and political future. This unexpected decline adds to an already grim outlook for the German economy, which is considered particularly exposed to global trade tensions. The IMF is now forecasting stagnation for Germany this year. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
Chinese exports to the United States are expected to fall by 77 percent in 2025, according to World Trade Organization forecasts.
Meanwhile, Chinese imports are expected to increase to every other market, with the rest of North America predicted to see growth of 25 percent. Source: Statista @StatistaCharts
