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Markets are flashing a stagflation warning.
Goldman's long/short stagflation basket is up 27.5% YTD, while the SP500 has dropped nearly 10% over the same period. Source: Bloomberg, HolgerZ
JPMorgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman:
"There will be blood"
CEO confidence one year out has fallen to the lowest since 2010:
Apollo's Torsten Slok
The list is out...
34% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON CHINA 20% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION
➡️ Liberation Day announcement brings US tariffs to levels not seen since the Smoot-Hawley.
➡️ Rough estimate of ~1.2% drag to US growth if they persist, before any retaliatory tariffs. ➡️ ~300bln/year revenue raise. ➡️ Canada & Mexico outcome is better than expected. ➡️ Europe & Japan is worse. Source: Bob Elliott
Here’s what investors consider to be the biggest risk to markets right now 👇
Source: Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow
CHINA URGES US TO IMMEDIATELY CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES
Source: Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital
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