GS: The Announced Tariff Increases So Far Would Have Boosted the Core PCE Price by About 0.9pp If They Had Been Fully Passed onto Consumers
Source: Goldman, Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Most Fed officials see rate cut as appropriate this year: FOMC minutes
Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
BofA argues that CHF is now behaving more like gold:
A liquid, neutral hedge against long-term fiscal uncertainty in a world that doesn't have many G10 alternatives, not short-term market stress. Source: Patrick Saner
Deflation remains the name of the game in china
China’s producer prices plunged 3.6% in June from a year earlier, marking its largest decline in nearly two years, as a deepening price war rippled through the economy that’s already grappling with tepid consumer demand. The drop in producer prices, however, came worse than the expected 3.2% in a Reuters poll and marked its biggest fall since July 2023, according to LSEG data. The PPI has been mired in a multi-year deflationary streak since September 2022. The consumer price index edged 0.1% higher in June from a year ago, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics Wednesday, returning to growth after four consecutive months of declines. Economists had forecast a flat reading compared to the same period a year earlier, according to a Reuters poll. Core CPI, stripping out food and energy prices, rose 0.7% from a year ago, the biggest increase in 14 months, according to NBS. China June Annual CPI +0.1% [Est. 0.0% Prev. -0.1%] Monthly CPI -0.1% [Est. 0.0% Prev. -0.2%] Annual PPI -3.6% [Est. -3.2% Prev. -3.3%] Monthly PPI -0.4% [Prev. -0.4%] Source: CNBC
This is what happens to a currency when the focus is to increase debt to inject liquidity, rather than addressing the root causes of the problem.
Thank God we have gold (and bitcoin). Source: Guilherme Tavares i3 invest
Euro makes new all-time highs every day in trade weighted terms.
Indeed, many countries - above all China - are pegged to the dollar. That supercharges the rise in Euro vs USD (white), taking Euro to stratospheric levels in trade-weighted terms (orange). Is inflation coming for the Euro zone... Source: Bloomberg, Robin Brooks
US debt has consistently risen regardless of which party is in power
Source: The Rabbit Hole @TheRabbitHole84
Oxford Economics thinks maybe everything is just being rerouted thru Vietnam
Source: RBC, Oxford Economics
