JPMorgan’s chief economist Bruce Kasman:
"There will be blood"
US credit-spreads are widening
Source: zerohedge
CEO confidence one year out has fallen to the lowest since 2010:
Apollo's Torsten Slok
The list is out...
34% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON CHINA 20% RECIPROCAL TARIFFS ON THE EUROPEAN UNION
➡️ Liberation Day announcement brings US tariffs to levels not seen since the Smoot-Hawley.
➡️ Rough estimate of ~1.2% drag to US growth if they persist, before any retaliatory tariffs. ➡️ ~300bln/year revenue raise. ➡️ Canada & Mexico outcome is better than expected. ➡️ Europe & Japan is worse. Source: Bob Elliott
Here’s what investors consider to be the biggest risk to markets right now 👇
Source: Cheddar Flow @CheddarFlow
CHINA URGES US TO IMMEDIATELY CANCEL RECIPROCAL TARIFFS, VOWS COUNTER-MEASURES
Source: Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital
Bloomberg Economics estimates that the average tariff rate the US charges on around $3T of imported goods will now go up to 22%- the highest in a century
But remember, this is NOT a final number. Many things can happen. - China could negotiate a deal (or try to absorb the shock via more stimulus and weakening of the Yuan) - The EU could chose to retaliate - and the US escalates... - How will the rest of the world respond is very uncertain as well Expect a new high in the economic uncertainty index and lots of volatility ahead Source: chart: Bianco Research
