Syz the moment

Both figures remain above Fed's 2% target, but Trump’s tariffs have not yet significantly impacted overall inflation. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

dragged down by a sharp decline in shipments to the U.S., with analysts saying effects of a Beijing-Washington trade truce will be visible in June data. 🟥 Chinese exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5% from a year ago, marking the sharpest drop since February 2020, according to Wind Information, when the Covid-19 pandemic disrupted trade. Imports from the U.S. dropped over 18%, and China’s trade surplus with America shrank by 41.55% year on year to $18 billion. Overall exports rose 4.8% last month in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, customs data showed Monday, shy of Reuters’ poll estimates of a 5% jump. 🟥 Imports plunged 3.4% in May from a year earlier, a drastic drop compared to economists’ expectations of a 0.9% fall. Imports had been declining this year, largely owed to sluggish domestic demand. That was largely offset by its shipment to the Southeast Asian bloc, which jumped nearly 15% from a year, and those to European Union countries and Africa, which rose 12% and over 33%, respectively. Source: CNBC

Beijing’s stimulus measures appear insufficient to boost domestic consumption, with price wars in the auto sector adding to downward pressure. 🟥 The consumer price index fell 0.1% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released Monday, compared with Reuters’ median estimate of a 0.2% decline. 🟥 CPI slipped into negative territory in February, falling 0.7% from a year ago, and has continued to post year-on-year declines of 0.1% in March, April, and now May. Core inflation, excluding food and energy prices, however, rose 0.6% in May — highest since January this year, according to Wind Information. Separately, deflation in the country’s factory-gate or producer prices deepened, falling 3.3% from a year earlier in May, marking the steepest decline since July 2023 and a sharper drop compared with analysts’ estimates of a 3.2% fall, according to LSEG data. Source: CNBC

May. Unemployment Rate: 4.2%, [Est. 4.2%, Prev. 4.2%] May. Average Hourly Earnings (MoM): 0.4%, [Est. 0.3%, Prev. 0.2%] May. Average Hourly Earnings (YoY): 3.9%, [Est. 3.7%, Prev. 3.8%] Source: Bloomberg

Source: Department of the Treasury

ECB cut the deposit rate by 25bps to 2% and reiterated that it’s not pre-committing to a particular path. ECB balance sheet shrank to €6.3tn. Note that ECB deposit rate has fallen below the German inflation rate for the first time since September 2023. Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg

Source: Future timeline

And still continues to climb aggressively Source: Bravos Research