BREAKING: US July PP inflation falls to 2.2%, below expectations of 2.3%
Core PPI inflation falls to 2.4%, below expectations of 2.7%. This is the first drop in Core PPI YoY since December last year... In another constructive sign, PPI inflation is now at its lowest level since March 2024. A September hashtag#fed rate cut seems to be on its way. PPI numbers in a nutshell: - PPI 0.1% MoM, Exp. 0.2% - PPI Core 0.0% MoM, Exp. 0.2% - PPI 2.2% YoY, Exp. 2.3% - PPI Core 2.4% YoY, Exp. 2.6% Source: The Kobeissi Letter, US Department of Labor, Mike Z.
The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to a record $1.11 trillion over the last 12 months, more than doubling over the past two years
At the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security. Source: Charlie Bilello
Recession is the talk of the town again
In just 1 week, recession searches have hit record levels. Source: Game of Trades
The view from Apollo: Still no signs of a recession in the US
Source: Apollo
Before the euro, Greece, Italy, Spain were adjusting for their lower productivity via currency devaluations each year.
Within the European currency union the only avenue left is adjusting via real wages pushing many people into poverty. Source: FT, Michel A.Arouet
US banks are facing $517 Billion of Unrealized Losses - nobody wants interest rate cuts more than them
Source: Barchart, BofA
Tax Revenue vs. GDP for Major Countries
Source: Visual Capitalist
A very important chart which goes AGAINST hard landing scenario
"The source of the rise in the us unemployment rate is not job cuts but a rise in labor supply because of rising immigration. That is the reason why the Sahm rule doesn’t work. The Sahm rule was designed for a decline in labor demand, not a rise in immigration." - Torsten Slok (Apollo) Source: Mike Z. on X
