“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.” - Peter Lynch
Source: Charlie Bilello
The S&P 500 is only down 3.7% from its peak closing price at the end of March.
The median intra-year drawdown since 1928 is -13%. What were seeing today is normal volatility - the first 3 months of the year were abnormally smooth. Source: Charlie Bilello
The sp500 closed below its 50-day moving average today for the first time since last November, ending the 10th longest streak since 1950.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Reversion to the meme...
Source: Charlie Bilello
Dow is only down 190pts so far this weekend.
Doesn’t seem too bad yet. We’ll see what futures say tomorrow morning. https://lnkd.in/eD7nnP5k
Healthy gains heading into May have historically been a good signal of a positive year for stocks.
Since 1982, when the stock market was higher on the year heading into May, it went on to post a full-year gain roughly 90% of the time. In that period, 1987, 2011 and 2015 were the only years in which the market was higher from January to April but finished the year lower.1 There were nine years in which the year-to-date increase heading into May was in the 6.5%–9.5% range, comparable to 2024’s 8% year-to-date gain. In those instances, the stock market went on to post an average full-year increase of 13%. Source: Edward Jones
CLS declines delaying FX cutoff as US stock changes loom
CLS Group, the largest currency settlement system, said on Tuesday it will not change its cut-off time for payment instructions for foreign exchange trades, dealing a blow to foreign asset managers hoping for some reprieve from a new U.S. rule putting them at risk of transaction failure. Beginning May 28, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission requires investors start settling U.S. equity transactions one day after the trade, or T+1, instead of the current two days. source : investing
US Small-Business Optimism Falls to a More Than 11-Year Low
source : Bloomberg
