WHAT JUST HAPPENED ON WALL STREET? 🤯
Today the S&P 500 opened up +1.4%… and finished deep in the RED (-1.5%). That move has happened only twice in modern history: Apr 7, 2020 — Post-COVID crash volatility Apr 8, 2025 — Post-Liberation Day shock Today just became the third. So what actually drove the reversal? Goldman’s trading desk points to a perfect storm: 🔥 1) NVDA -7% fade Yes, they beat. Yes, they raised. But the “clear all” bull case didn’t show up. ⚠️ 2) Private credit risk can’t be brushed aside Fed’s Cook literally flagged “potential asset valuation vulnerabilities.” 📉 3) September NFP = fine… but not decisive December rate-cut odds barely nudged higher (now ~35%). 💥 4) Crypto cracked below the $90K psychological line 📊 5) CTA supply hit the gas Positioning was crowded long… and we just crossed short-term triggers. Medium-term supply looms at 6456. 🐻 6) Shorts are waking back up 🌏 7) Weak global price action SK Hynix, SoftBank… not helping. 💧 8) Liquidity? Nearly nonexistent Top-of-book S&P liquidity ~$5mm vs ~$11mm YTD average. 📈 9) ETF-driven market ETFs were 41% of the tape today (YTD avg: 28%). When passive flows dominate, macro > fundamentals. Here’s the kicker: NVDA’s results were good. Objectively good. But as Goldman’s John Flood put it: 👉 “When really good news isn’t rewarded, that’s usually a bad sign.” So the real question: Is the market pricing in a Fed policy mistake? (No December cut → forced tightening → equity stress?) Or is this the market’s way of dragging the hawks back to the dovish table? Either way… Volatility is back. And the macro tape is driving the bus. 📡 Stay tuned. Source: zerohedge
VIX (equity vol) exploded higher yesterday, topping 28 at its peak, and dramatically decoupling again from bond vol (biggest divergence since Liberation Day fallout)...
Source: zerohedge
TODAY is estimated to be the largest November expiration EVER.
We’re talking $3.1 TRILLION worth of options contracts expiring all at once. Source: StockMarket.news
Yesterday: Michael Burry shutting down hedge fund
April 7: Tom Lee issues apology to investors Signs of time? 🤔 Source: The Market Stats @TheMarketStats
It seems that Michael Burry closing his fund DOES NOT mean he is done
He is planning something massive on Nov 25th...
🔴 Stock Market Crash "Hindenburg Omen" Triggered 🚨
The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator that correctly detected the 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes, has been triggered for the 5th time over the last month 👻😱 ➡️ What is a Hindenburg Open? The Hindenburg Omen is a technical stock-market indicator that attempts to predict increased probability of a market crash. It triggers when several conditions occur at the same time on a stock exchange (usually the NYSE), such as: A high number of new 52-week highs and 52-week lows on the same day A rising 50-day moving average Worsening market breadth Other internal market divergences It’s named after the Hindenburg disaster because it is meant to signal potential “market instability.” Source: Barchart
From @TheEconomist thru Mo El Erian on X:
"America’s surging stockmarket has been driven, most of all, by old investors.... Americans aged 70 and above now own 39% of all stocks and mutual funds (which mostly invest in equities), almost twice as much as was common from 1989 to 2009. The trend reflects a shift in outlook. Elderly Americans’ risk tolerance has shot up."
World's Most Valuable Assets
Source: Compounding Dividends
