The K-Shaped Economy: Personal savings have dropped by -$469.2 billion since April, a decline of -37%.
The personal saving rate tumbled from 5.5% in April to 3.5% in November, the lowest since 2008, excluding the Covid-era distortions of 2020. Dwindling savings mean there’s less of a cushion to meet necessary payments, let alone make discretionary purchases. Delinquency rates on loans ranging from mortgages to credit cards rose to 4.8% in Q4, the highest since 2017. American's wallets are hurting. Source: Bloomberg, Hedgeye
One equity market tailwind is coming back...
Roughly 80% of corporates are out of the buyback blackout period Source: Bloomberg
Fascinating study from Bloomberg: S&P Equal Weight outperformance was extremely rare historically:
1999-2002 Dotcom 2009 Post GFC 2020-2021 Covid “Those cases accompanied major shifts in the market.” “Equal-weight S&P managed to maintain some outperformance 250 days later.” “The big question: whether this is the start of an extended period of sharp moves around AI disruptors, and the disrupted.” Source: Macrocharts, Bloomberg
Make or break in NASDAQ
NASDAQ futures are now pressing the lower end of the range. We’re well below the 100-day, with the 200-day sitting just beneath, making ~24,500 in futures the clear make-or-break level. Source: LSEG Workspace TME
Fascinating chart from Goldman Sachs showing how stocks of newspaper companies started to move downward before their earnings took a hit.
Make or break in NASDAQ
Equity Put/Call Ratio jumps to highest level this year and one of the highest levels since June
Source: Barchart
The hyperscaler debt explosion:
Source: Brian Sozzi @BrianSozzi
Wow Hedgefunds are smashing the buy button on Asian stocks.
These are the biggest inflows in years. 🤑 International markets continue to see a lot of interest. Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets Via @GoldmanSachs
