🚀 Here comes the "Trump Put"...
Dow surges 2,400 points for biggest rally in 5 years Trump tariffs drop to 10% universal rate for all countries except China for 90 days. Here are the GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY 👇 : ➡️ THE GOOD: This is (at least temporarily) putting an halt to the cyclical bear market which was in the midst of turning into a full-blown financial crisis. ➡️ THE BAD: Who can deal with such volatility and unpredictability? Investors started the day trying to understand the risks of the basis trade unwinding and now they have to handle the biggest rally for the Dow in 5 years... What about CEOs and CFOs? At this stage it is impossible for them to make any plans about capex, hiring or M&As. All of this will have consequences on the risk premium required by investors. It will also have consequences on economic growth and employment.
The S&P 500 is down 15.3% in the first 66 trading days of 2025, the 4th worst start to a year in history.
Source: Charlie Bilello
Third consecutive close of the $VIX > 45.
That’s only happened in three bear cycles: 🔻 2008 🔻 2020 🔻 2025 Source: Alfonso De Pablos, CMT, Alfcharts
Do you remember LTCM???
According to a zerohedge article, the leverage on Treasury basis trades - which is by far the most popular trade among big hedge funds - is anywhere between 20x (Treasury Board Advisory Committee estimate) and 56x (Fed estimate); on a VaR basis LTCM was an amateur... Source: www.zerohedge.com
The $VIX closed above 50 today which is in the top 1% of historical readings.
What has happened in the past following closes above 50? S&P 500 gains over the next 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 years every time with above-average returns overall. Source: Charlie Bilello
Tom Lee: Today may have seen the quiet return of the "Trump put"
Eyeing previous retests & V-bottoms $SPX Source: Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT, MBA
Almost like it was scripted. Too perfect?
Source: Trend Spider
Updated version of our Q1 2025 earnings season preview, data as of April 7, 2025.
The season kicks off this Friday with all eyes on the big banks. Over 50% of S&P 500 firms mentioned tariffs in their Q4 conference calls according to FactSet, could we see that number go higher? Source: Wall Street Horizon @WallStHorizon
