Almost like it was scripted. Too perfect?
Source: Trend Spider
Updated version of our Q1 2025 earnings season preview, data as of April 7, 2025.
The season kicks off this Friday with all eyes on the big banks. Over 50% of S&P 500 firms mentioned tariffs in their Q4 conference calls according to FactSet, could we see that number go higher? Source: Wall Street Horizon @WallStHorizon
Has a new secular BEAR MARKET begun in the US?
The US share in the global stock market has fallen 3-4 percentage points since its November 2024 peak of 67%. This comes as the US has significantly underperformed other markets this year. Many investors are not ready for this.. Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
🔴 The VIX Is Pricing In A Recession, While Junk (Still) Sees Zero Risk
➡️ SocGen's Jitesh Kumar writes that high yields spreads remain below 4%, and "we have never been in recession with high yield spreads below 4.5% (data going back to 1987)." In other words, US HY credit spreads are pricing in 0% recession probability. ➡️ However while credit remains complacent, one asset is starting blast a recession warning siren: according to UBS trader Antonya Allen, the VIX is now pricing in a recession. Which one will be correct? Source: SocGen, www.zerohedge.com
A sea of red in crypto markets ahead of Asian opening. Doesn't smell good...
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We need to monitor corporate spreads very closely
Source: Apollo
Black Monday is in everyone's mind...
because it gapped lower after the week-end that followed an aggressive sell-off Source: Jesse Cohen
⚠️No major CAPITULATION from retail investors YET:
Net retail buying of the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, hit over $200 BILLION on Friday, the most in 13 months. Mom-and-pop investors were also the net buyers of NVIDIA, $NVDA, Tesla, $TSLA, and Amazon, $AMZN, among others. Source: Global Markets Investor
