This chart keeps deteriorating.
The major private equity houses have had their stock prices collectively lopped by more than a third, yet the S&P 500 sits 3% below record highs. Disconcerting. Source: Jeff Weniger, WisdomTree Afficher la traduction
Market action in fixedincome wasn't great yesterday.
Treasuries (upper chart) were a bloodbath yesterday with yields up 5-8bps (long-end lagging, now up 10bps on the week)... High Yield OAS spreads (lower chart) have begun to widen (credit underperformed stocks yesterday) Something to keep a very close eye on. Source: zerohedge
Glendon Capital warned that some private credit funds
especially those managed by Blue Owl Capital—may overvalue loans relative to market prices. For example, junior debt of Cornerstone OnDemand was valued near 90¢ while its senior debt traded around 78¢. Similar gaps appear for Barracuda Networks, Peraton, and Conair Holdings, suggesting possible future write-downs as stress grows in private credit markets. Source: FT
Returns since the start of the conflict
Source: Trend Spider
Energy sector up 25% YTD. Everything else red.
One sector carrying the market isn't a rotation. It's a warning. Source: Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreport
Oil Just Did the Unthinkable.
It didn’t just beat a crisis. It beat every crisis. Last week, WTI oil moved more violently than: • The Saudi price war of 1986 • The Gaza crisis of 2009 • Even the Covid demand collapse of 2020 In one week, oil experienced its biggest move in 40 years of recorded history. Source: Katusa Research @KatusaResearch
President Trump announced that the United States will provide insurance for "ALL Maritime Trade" via the US Development Finance Corporation (DFC), and will provide Navy escorts, "if necessary."
Effective IMMEDIATELY, I have ordered the United States Development Finance Corporation (DFC) to provide, at a very reasonable price, political risk insurance and guarantees for the Financial Security of ALL Maritime Trade, especially Energy, traveling through the Gulf. This will be available to all Shipping Lines. If necessary, the United States Navy will begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, as soon as possible. Markets bounced and oil retreated on the news Source: zerohedge
Anthropic’s AI Standoff Could Trigger Historic Software Short Squeeze
Anthropic, creator of Claude, is at the center of a clash between AI ethics and U.S. defense policy. After winning a $200M classified contract, the Pentagon demanded compliance with a broader AI doctrine, conflicting with Anthropic’s safety guardrails. Tensions escalated following Claude’s military use, threatening contract cancellation and supply chain pressures. With Software & IT Services at record short levels, resolution, either compliance or Pentagon compromise, could spark a massive short squeeze, highlighting the battle over control of frontier AI. Source: ZeroHedge
