Has a new secular BEAR MARKET begun in the US?
The US share in the global stock market has fallen 3-4 percentage points since its November 2024 peak of 67%. This comes as the US has significantly underperformed other markets this year. Many investors are not ready for this.. Source: BofA, Global Markets Investor
🔴 The VIX Is Pricing In A Recession, While Junk (Still) Sees Zero Risk
➡️ SocGen's Jitesh Kumar writes that high yields spreads remain below 4%, and "we have never been in recession with high yield spreads below 4.5% (data going back to 1987)." In other words, US HY credit spreads are pricing in 0% recession probability. ➡️ However while credit remains complacent, one asset is starting blast a recession warning siren: according to UBS trader Antonya Allen, the VIX is now pricing in a recession. Which one will be correct? Source: SocGen, www.zerohedge.com
A sea of red in crypto markets ahead of Asian opening. Doesn't smell good...
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We need to monitor corporate spreads very closely
Source: Apollo
Black Monday is in everyone's mind...
because it gapped lower after the week-end that followed an aggressive sell-off Source: Jesse Cohen
⚠️No major CAPITULATION from retail investors YET:
Net retail buying of the S&P 500 ETF, $SPY, hit over $200 BILLION on Friday, the most in 13 months. Mom-and-pop investors were also the net buyers of NVIDIA, $NVDA, Tesla, $TSLA, and Amazon, $AMZN, among others. Source: Global Markets Investor
Types of analyst one should be
The Investing for Beginners Podcast @IFB_podcast
🚨Market volatility is skyrocketing as if there is A FINANCIAL CRISIS
The Volatility Index, $VIX, spiked to 59 points, the 4th highest level EVER. There were only three times when the VIX traded higher: - Great Financial Crisis - 2020 Crisis - August 2024 Flash Crash Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures are crashing 5% in the session and are trading 22% below the peak (which means it is now in BEAR MARKET territory). Source: Global Markets Investor
