The signal for Market Bottom?
A Follow Through Day (FTD) is a concept developed by William J. O’Neil to identify an important change in general market direction, from a definite downtrend to a new uptrend. Follow Through Days occurs during a market correction when a major index closes significantly higher than the previous day, and on greater volume. It happens Day 4 or later of an attempted rally. Leading up to a FTD, an attempted rally takes place during a downtrend when a major index closes with a gain. The rally attempt continues intact as long as the index doesn’t make a new low. Follow Through Day Characteristics: Characteristics of a follow-through day include an index closing at least 1.7 – 2% higher on increased volume, positive behavior of leading stocks, and improved market action regarding support vs. resistance levels. The most powerful follow-through days often happen Day 4 through Day 7 of an attempted rally. Day 1 of an attempted rally is the first up day after a new low. Source: True market Leader @TmarketL, TraderLion
The S&P 500 is down 5.7% from its closing high on July 16, the largest drawdown of the year.
The index is still up 13% year-to-date including dividends. No risk, no reward. $SPX Source. Charlie Bilello
What does he know about Apple and the stock market that we don't?
Also interesting to see that Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own 4% of all T-Bills issued to the public… Buffett has ~$277 Billion. The Fed has $195 Billion. Warren Buffett is now a larger holder of US Treasury Bills than the Federal Reserve. Source: FT, Geiger Capital
JUST IN: Over $2.9 trillion has been wiped out from major indices and stocks this morning due to growing fears of a global recession.
This is the worst day for stocks since March 16, 2020, during the COVID-19 pandemic fears. Source: Jacob King, Bloomberg
BREAKING >>> Intel stock, $INTC, crashed over 12% after-hours yesterday evening after reporting Q2 2024 earnings and suspending their dividend.
They reported EPS of $0.02, below expectations of $0.10, on revenue of $12.8 billion, below expectations of $12.9 billion. Intel also announced that they will be laying off 15,000 of their employees. A difficult quarter for Intel. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Since its after hours low seen just 18 hours ago, Nvidia has added $380 BILLION of market cap.
In other words, Nvidia has added as much market cap as the entire value of Costco, $COST, in 18 hours. This comes after the stock erased $1 TRILLION of market cap over the last 5 weeks. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
Loose policy = Bull market
Even if the BOJ hikes a few more times, real rates will remain deeply negative, a sign of accommodate policy. Chart tracks Japan real rates & market performance ➡️ 2009 -2013: period of high real rates, languishing stock market🔻 ➡️2013-2021: BOJ floors rates, pushes rates negative and fuels stock rally ✅ ➡️ 2021-2024: inflation picks up, real rates drop even further negative, Topix rallies 50% ✅✅ Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
BREAKING: The Magnificent 7 stocks have now erased a combined $2.6 TRILLION of market cap over the last 20 days.
That's an average of $125 billion of market cap PER DAY for 20 days sight. Nvidia, $NVDA, alone has erased over $1 trillion in market cap since its high seen one month ago. In other words, the Magnificent7 have lost as much value as Nvidia's ENTIRE current market cap in 20 days. That's also $200 billion more than every stock in Germany's stock market combined. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
