Loose policy = Bull market
Even if the BOJ hikes a few more times, real rates will remain deeply negative, a sign of accommodate policy. Chart tracks Japan real rates & market performance ➡️ 2009 -2013: period of high real rates, languishing stock market🔻 ➡️2013-2021: BOJ floors rates, pushes rates negative and fuels stock rally ✅ ➡️ 2021-2024: inflation picks up, real rates drop even further negative, Topix rallies 50% ✅✅ Source: David Ingles, Bloomberg
BREAKING: The Magnificent 7 stocks have now erased a combined $2.6 TRILLION of market cap over the last 20 days.
That's an average of $125 billion of market cap PER DAY for 20 days sight. Nvidia, $NVDA, alone has erased over $1 trillion in market cap since its high seen one month ago. In other words, the Magnificent7 have lost as much value as Nvidia's ENTIRE current market cap in 20 days. That's also $200 billion more than every stock in Germany's stock market combined. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Nvidia, $NVDA, has now erased $1 TRILLION of market cap since its all time high set on June 20th.
In other words, $NVDA has erased $200 billion of market cap PER WEEK over the last 5 weeks. The stock is now down ~27% from its recent all time high. In just 5 weeks, Nvidia has erased as much market cap as 1.5 TIMES the entire value of Tesla, $TSLA. This also equals roughly the same value as the market cap of Berkshire Hathaway. Source: The Kobeissi Letter
In bull markets stocks go up
Source: J-C Parets
This quarter, the reactions to the S&P 500 earnings have been less positive than usual.
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Active funds are overweight Momentum factors by ~30% vs. the S&P 500
Source: BofA, Mike Z.
The Mag7 peaked on July 10. Since then it has dropped close to 12%, while smallcaps are up more than 10%.
Quite amazing how the market has been behaving despite the pullback of the "generals" Source: Carson, Ryan Detrick
Junk bonds closed at an ATH (total return) last week $HYG
Source: Mike Z.
